A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from

Gregor Stuart Hunter

It's Fed Day, and it looks increasingly certain that it will

be Jerome Powell's curtain call as chair. By the time the

Federal Open Market Committee wraps up, the Senate is expected

to be voting on Kevin Warsh's confirmation, setting the stage

for one of the most consequential periods at the world's most

powerful central bank.

Fed funds futures are pricing a 100% probability of a hold,

with no policy changes expected until well into 2027. But with

the FOMC looking more divided than ever, questions remain about

how Warsh will navigate the central bank's relationship with the

White House as U.S. President Donald Trump continues to loudly

demand quick and aggressive rate cuts.

Debate on Powell's legacy will likely centre on his defence

of the Fed's independencein the face of relentless pressure from

Trump - who appointed him in the first place. It's also not yet

clear whether Powell will stick around as a Fed governor after

his term as chair officially ends on May 15.

Markets, meanwhile, are treading carefully on Wednesday,

with S&P 500 e-mini futures up 0.1% and MSCI's broadest

index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan

erasing earlier losses to trade flat. Traders are juggling Fed

uncertainty alongside a simmering geopolitical standoff, as the

diplomatic impasse between Washington and Tehran over ending the

war hangs over markets. The Wall Street Journal reported on

Tuesday, citing U.S. officials, that Trump has instructed aides

to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran.

Tech didn't offer much comfort either. Chipmakers in Asia

took a hit after the Journal reported that AI heavyweight OpenAI

had missed internal targets for weekly users and revenue,

raising concerns about whether the ChatGPT parent can sustain

its massive spending on data centres. The report had earlier

weighed on shares of Oracle and CoreWeave in Wall Street

trading.

In early European trades, pan-region futures and

German DAX futures were flat, while FTSE futures

were down 0.2%.

And finally, M&A advisors may be nursing a hangover after

trying to mix too many spirits. Pernod Ricard and

Brown-Forman ( BF/A ) ended merger talks after the French spirits

company and the Kentucky-based owner of Jack Daniel's whiskey

failed to reach mutually acceptable terms.

Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:

European earnings:

Deutsche Bank, Amundi , Mercedes-Benz

, Norsk Hydro ( NHYKF ), AstraZeneca ( AZN ), GSK

, TotalEnergies, Universal Music Group

.

U.S. earnings:

Alphabet, Microsoft ( MSFT ), Amazon.com ( AMZN ),

Meta, AbbVie ( ABBV ), Qualcomm ( QCOM )

Economic events

Euro Zone: Money-M3 Annual Growth for March, Business

Climate, Consumer Confidence, Economic Sentiment, Industrial

Sentiment, Services Sentiment for April

Germany: Preliminary CPI and HICP for April

Debt auctions

Germany: 10-year bund auction