A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from
Kevin Buckland
Markets are in buoyant mood, clearly anticipating Friday's
hotly awaited U.S. payrolls report will keep the Fed on course
to cut rates this month and once more by year-end.
It was the previous month's payrolls shocker that got
speculation really going that U.S. monetary policy would need to
come down fast, and economists predict an only slightly higher
reading this time around.
Fed Chair Jay Powell surprised many at last month's closely
watched Jackson Hole symposium with a keynote that suggested a
cut on September 17 is coming unless the data gets in the way.
Fedspeak from other officials has been leaning dovish on the
whole, and the window for additional comments closes later today
as the central bank enters a blackout period in the run-up to
its policy gathering.
U.S. stock futures are pointing higher after the S&P 500
notched a record-high close overnight, and the Nasdaq Composite
came within 6 points of doing the same.
European futures are doing the same, and Asian markets from
Japan to Taiwan to mainland China are rising about 1%.
Bond markets too, which had turned so volatile at the start
of the week, have been calmed by a run of soft U.S. jobs data
that has bolstered confidence for a non-farm payrolls report
that will further the narrative for easier Fed policy.
After surging to record highs on Wednesday, Japanese 30-year
government bond yields have retraced about half of that day's
rise. Similarly dated U.S. Treasury yields have slipped to
three-week lows, while two- and 10-year yields have eased to
four-month troughs.
British 30-year gilt yields are back at the levels from a
week ago, before the four-day spike to the highest since 1998.
German and French yields are down from multi-year peaks.
Gold is also biding its time, hovering below Wednesday's
all-time high following a breathless seven-day rally.
That means there's a lot riding on a benign U.S. payrolls
reading. And there's not a lot to distract from it in the
lead-up, with German factory data, British retail sales and
revised euro-area GDP the most noteworthy.
Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:
-U.S. payrolls
-Canada payrolls
-Euro zone revised GDP
-Germany industrial orders, manufacturing output
-UK retail sales, Halifax house prices