A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from

Wayne Cole.

It's been a blessedly quiet start to the week, with

President Trump more engrossed on his disappointment with

Russia, than his trade war. In this case, silence is golden, as

the White House's communication on trade has been a lot more

noise than signal.

Thus, Agriculture Secretary Rollins tells TV they are

speaking with China every day, likely news to Beijing. Then

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says he has not discussed

tariffs with Chinese officials and doesn't know if Trump talked

to Xi, as he claimed.

Apparently the White House plan is to have trade talks with

six different nations every week until Trump's July 9 deadline

on tariffs. Perhaps somewhat optimistic, given it takes on

average 18 months just to set the terms of a deal, and longer to

actually pass one.

For now, markets are assuming they've seen peak tariff and

Trump will be forced to lower levies on China, particularly

after major U.S. retailers last week warned him their shelves

would otherwise soon empty.

Analysts at Barclays reckon a likely outcome will be 60%

tariffs on China, 10% on everyone else and sectoral levies

remaining at 25%, with exceptions. Even that, they note, would

be worse than their worst-case scenario heading into 2025.

Maybe one reason Asian shares are just marginally firmer so

far today, while Wall St futures are down around 0.5% even as

analysts are generally upbeat about looming earnings.

About 180 S&P 500 companies representing more than 40% of

the index's market value report this week, including mega-caps

Apple ( AAPL ), Microsoft ( MSFT ), Amazon ( AMZN ) and Meta

Platforms ( META ). Clearly, there will be intense interest in

Apple's ( AAPL ) outlook for iPhone sales and the impact of tariffs on

its sprawling supply chains.

As for data, euro zone and U.S. inflation reports this week

are expected to be dovish for policy, as is the Q1 U.S. GDP

report where a surge in imports, notably of gold, will bias down

the headline number. Even excluding gold, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow

measure tips GDP to drop 0.4% annualised.

The payrolls numbers on Friday are more timely and should

help refine wagers for a June rate cut from the Fed, currently

put at around 63%.

Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:

- Appearances by ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos and Bank

of Finland Governor Olli Rehn

- Dallas Fed manufacturing survey

(Editing by Jacqueline Wong)