May 4 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European

and global markets from Wayne Cole.

A new week and we're back to Strait watching. That's the

Strait of Hormuz and everyone's a shipping expert these days. So

President Trump surprised this morning by posting the launch of

Project Freedom to help the around 900 ships caught inside the

Strait exit past the Iranians.

He was short on detail but U.S. Central Command helpfully

issued a brief media release saying it will support merchant

vessels seeking to freely transit through the essential

international trade corridor.

Notably CentCom says this will include guided-missile

destroyers, over 100 land- and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain

unmanned platforms, and 15,000 service members, suggesting some

sort of military intervention in the Strait to get the ships

out.

Perhaps a convoy system, though it's not clear the Navy has

enough ships, or the right kind of vessels, for such an

operation.

It would also be very difficult, not to mention dangerous,

to run a convoy system through such a narrow waterway with

Iranian forces holding the entire northern shore of the Gulf.

According to Trump, the operation is due to start today, and so

far markets are reserving judgement.

Indeed, an Axios report said the operation would not

necessarily involve Navy ships escorting private vessels. It was

also unclear whether ship owners and crews would dare sail the

strait given reports of two ships being attacked since Sunday.

Looking at the various ship tracking web sites, there's no sign

of vessels lining up to try their luck.

The latest data show on 2 May, 12 ships crossed the strait -

five inbound and seven outbound - compared to a daily average of

138 before the conflict.

Thus, after falling more than 2% initially, Brent has come

back to almost steady at $108 a barrel, with U.S. crude just

short of $102. European and U.S. stock futures are a whisker

firmer, and the dollar little moved.

Markets are braced for more than 100 earnings reports this

week. Companies reporting include Advanced Micro Devices ( AMD )

, Super Micro Computer Inc ( SMCI ), Palantir ( PLTR ),

Walt Disney ( DIS ) and McDonald's. AMD will have to

sound bullish to justify the 80% rise in its share price over

recent weeks.

For data, U.S. trade figures, ISM services, JOLTS, jobless

claims and ADP employment all lead up to the payrolls report on

Friday. Median forecasts are 4.3% and a rise of 60,000, though

seasonal adjustment problems mean estimates go from -15,000 all

the way up to +135,000.

A very weak report would be needed to revive the chance of a

Fed rate cut this year, given the three dissents on the FOMC

against an easing bias last week. The influential NY Fed chief

John Williams will have a chance to lay out his thinking later

today. Several ECB and BoC officials will also speak on Monday.

Australia's central bank meets on Tuesday and is considered

likely (around 80%) to raise cash rates by 25 bps to 4.35%, the

third straight hike.

Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:

- Participation by ECB President Christine Lagarde and ECB

board member Piero Cipollone in Eurogroup meeting in Brussels

- Presentation of the ECB Annual Report 2025

- Appearance by Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and

Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers

- Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams

gives a keynote address