July 14 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European

and global markets from Wayne Cole.

It looks increasingly clear that for President Trump, tariffs

are mainly a convenient means of dominating the news cycle and

staying in the headlines. Not for him are months of tortuous,

complex trade talks aimed at a win-win outcome. Why do that when

you can tweet a 30% tariff threat on a Saturday morning and own

the news for an entire weekend?

Figuring this is mostly a negotiation tactic, markets have

eased only modestly in Asia. S&P 500 futures are off 0.4% or so

while most regional indices are down only slightly.

The euro is down a fraction, but European futures have lost

a larger 0.7% as it's hard to see how Brussels could ever

satisfy Trump's demands, in part because it's not clear what he

wants. EU tariffs on U.S. goods are already so minor there is

little to cut, while granting exemption to domestic taxes and

regulations is politically fraught.

It's also possible the market's stoic reaction will prove

to be too clever by half. Investors figure Trump really, really

wants to avoid another market melt-down, so will ease up on

tariffs when the crunch comes. But with U.S. stocks hitting

record highs and bond yields well off their peaks, Trump could

be forgiven for thinking markets are now on his side and realise

how "beautiful" tariffs really are.

At any rate, it seems certain that the effective U.S. tariff

rate will be akin to the Smoot-Hawley levies that contributed so

much to the Great Depression and we'll get to see if Trump is

right and the vast majority of professional economists are

wrong.

They don't yet look to have magically solved the U.S. trade

deficit. China today reported its surplus with the U.S. rose 48%

in June to almost $27 billion, while its overall exports beat

forecasts.

Trump also found time to stoke his feud with Fed Chair

Jerome Powell, saying it would be "a great thing" if he stepped

down - eight years after he nominated Powell to the role.

Worryingly, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett over

the weekend warned Trump might have grounds to fire Powell

because of renovation cost overruns at the Fed's Washington

headquarters.

Analysts assume a Trump pick for Fed chief would do his

bidding by trying to cut interest rates aggressively, though

whether the rest of FOMC voters would agree is in doubt.

This could push short-term market rates lower, but

longer-term yields would likely rise as investors demand

compensation for the risk of faster inflation, much as happened

in Turkey.

Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:

- ECB board member Piero Cipollone appears at the Committee

on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament