A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from

Wayne Cole.

Take your pick from "substantial progress", "constructive",

"an important first step", "reached important consensus", "good

news for the world", and easily the best: "As we say back in

China, if the dishes are delicious, the timing doesn't matter".

All were uttered by negotiators during the U.S.-China trade

talks over the weekend in Geneva, and they do sound like

progress compared with the jingoistic war of words that marked

the initial announcement of President Trump's 145% tariffs.

What was lacking was specifics, and it was notable that

neither team mentioned actual tariff levels at all over the

weekend. A joint statement is expected later on Monday, which

may offer more detail, though markets doubt the White House take

that a "deal" is being done.

It's an odd world where investors trust the word of a

communist one-party state over the United States.

Anyway, markets are relieved that weapons weren't drawn

during the talks and have pushed S&P 500 futures up 1.4% and

Nasdaq futures almost 2%. European stock futures have gained

0.8% or so.

The dollar is up modestly on safe havens and Treasuries have

suffered knee-jerk selling as the market further trims its

expectations on the pace of future Fed rate cuts.

The odds for a June easing are now priced at just 17%, with

July at 59%. Futures imply 63 basis points of cuts this year,

compared with more than 110 bps in mid-April.

Helping the mood was the fragile ceasefire holding between

India and Pakistan, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr

Zelenskiy said he was ready to meet Vladimir Putin in Turkey on

Thursday for talks.

As for the economic diary, U.S. CPI on Tuesday might hint at

price rises to come, although analysts assume the first clear

impact of tariffs will show in the May report. Retail sales are

forecast to be flat for April, with the risk likely to the

downside given the chilling effect that the announcement of

import levies had on consumer sentiment.

One assumes tariffs won't be applied to the gold-decked 747

Trump plans to accept from the Qatari royal family. Membership

has its privileges, it seems.

Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:

- Eurogroup meeting includes ECB board members Cipollone and

Buch; appearances by BoE Deputy Governor Lombardelli and

policymakers Greene, Mann and Taylor.

- Fed Board Governor Kugler speaks on the economic outlook