financetom
World
financetom
/
World
/
Morning Bid: Yen bounces from 160 per dollar in busy Fed-led week
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Morning Bid: Yen bounces from 160 per dollar in busy Fed-led week
Apr 29, 2024 3:25 AM

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

A week jam-packed with major market events kicked off with some wild action in Japan's yen during a public holiday there, with a withering drop in the currency to 34-year lows of 160 per dollar meeting predictable intervention speculation that triggered an equally eye-watering rebound.

With no official yen purchases yet confirmed, market chatter presumed there had been at least some shot across the bow as the currency's fall since Friday's anodyne Bank of Japan meeting threatened to go into tailspin. Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda declined to comment when asked if there had been any action.

From Thursday's close, the dollar/yen exchange rate had jumped as much as 2.8% - with implied overnight volatility in the currency options market topping 17% for the first time this year. And even though the yen bounced hard on 160 to sit just under 156 in London, it remains weaker than it was when trading kicked off on Friday.

Japan's seeming 'benign neglect' of the currency, as Deutsche Bank described it last week, is understandable given domestic inflation is largely under wraps, the move is largely driven by interest rate fundamentals and it's flattering for Japanese exports and tourism.

But its spur to dollar-denominated energy import prices and a potential disturbance of the competitive landscape across Asia's big exporting nations means the Japanese authorities will likely not want this move to get out of hand.

And yet this week is dominated by one of the major drivers - an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve that meets again on Tuesday and Wednesday amid ebbing hopes for more than one U.S. interest rate cut this year.

After a series of sticky inflation readings this year, only 35 basis points of Fed easing is now priced for the entire year. The March release of the Fed's favored PCE inflation gauge calmed markets a bit as it came in line with forecasts and showed no further deterioration of early-year price picture.

But it's done little to change the policy outlook - with this week's Fed signalling likely to remain non-committal while perhaps nodding to discussions on slowing its balance sheet reduction.

That may be welcomed by the increasingly agitated Treasury market - where 10-year yields returned last week to the danger zone of October/November and the so-called 'term premium' demanded by investors for long-term risks also flipped positive for the first time this year.

Yields slipped back a touch on Monday, with the Treasury this week publishing refunding plans for the coming quarter and expected on Monday to outline borrowing estimates for the two quarters ahead.

Most auction sizes are expected to remain unchanged, as it has already promised, but much of the attention may be on a likely bond buy back program.

Elsewhere, the week's dominant economic data sweep will be from the labor market - culminating in Friday's likely still-robust payroll report for this month.

In the corporate world, another heavy earnings week will see Wall Street trying to capitalise on what was its best week of the year last week - aided by big gains for megacaps such as Microsoft, Alphabet and Tesla.

Amazon on Tuesday and Apple on Thursday top this week's updates.

And Wall St futures were higher ahead of the bell, as world stocks continued higher following Friday's gains.

The S&P500 earnings season has picked up steam considerably from where it was indicated at the start of the month, with LSEG data showing the blended annual profit gain for the index during the first quarter now back as high as 5.6% - up from the 5.1% forecast on April 1.

In company news, Tesla has cleared some key regulatory hurdles that have long hindered it from rolling out its self-driving software in China, paving the way for a favourable result from Elon Musk's surprise visit to the U.S. automaker's second largest market.

In Europe, shares of Anglo American climbed 2.3% after Reuters reported BHP

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks gain as Meta, Tesla boost investor mood; gold hits record
GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks gain as Meta, Tesla boost investor mood; gold hits record
Jan 30, 2025
(Updates to afternoon U.S. trading) * Global stocks up after Meta, Tesla earnings * Microsoft ( MSFT ) tumbles after downbeat cloud outlook * Dollar dips, gold hits record as traders rush to borrow metal * Fed keeps U.S. rates steady, ECB cuts rates By Amanda Cooper and Lawrence Delevingne LONDON/BOSTON, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Wall Street shares advanced on...
TSX Closer: The Index Posts a New Record Close Despite Looming Trade War
TSX Closer: The Index Posts a New Record Close Despite Looming Trade War
Jan 30, 2025
04:18 PM EST, 01/30/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange rose to a fresh record high on Thursday, rising for a third-straight session as tech issues continue to rebound from Monday's surprise DeepSeek-driven dive, even as Donald Trump threatens to impose 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico. The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 334.95 points to 25,808.25,...
MORNING BID ASIA-Trump tariff grenade threatens market calm
MORNING BID ASIA-Trump tariff grenade threatens market calm
Jan 30, 2025
Jan 31 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets. A tumultuous week rounds off with investors in Asia taking their cue from more U.S. 'Big Tech' earnings, digesting Fed Chair Jerome Powell's guidance from earlier in the week, but bracing for U.S. tariff-related volatility. The global macro backdrop is broadly supportive, after the European Central Bank's...
EMERGING MARKETS-Bovespa leads Latam stocks higher after Lula's market-friendly comments 
EMERGING MARKETS-Bovespa leads Latam stocks higher after Lula's market-friendly comments 
Jan 30, 2025
* Brazil's central bank hikes rates by 100 basis points * Preliminary data shows Mexico's economy shrank in fourth quarter * MSCI's Latin American currencies flat, stocks jump 2% * Argentina's cenbank decision on tap (Updates to midsession trading) By Purvi Agarwal and Johann M Cherian Jan 30 (Reuters) - Equity indexes in resources-rich Latin America advanced on Thursday, with...
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved