04:15 PM EDT, 04/15/2024 (MT Newswires) -- National Bank of Canada on Monday said: "If warm(er) inflation data are complicating the U.S. policy picture, more benign inflation north of the border (at least going into the March CPI release) create scope for a timelier policy pivot by the Bank of Canada." National noted Governing Council has acknowledged progress on most -- maybe all -- items on the unofficial 'easing checklist'. For example, beyond "tamer" inflation prints (headline and core, trend and momentum-based), excess slack has opened up in the economy. Wage growth has also eased, consistent with a weaker jobs market and a rising unemployment rate. And "softer" inflation expectations and the "somewhat nebulous concept" of 'corporate pricing behaviour' are also "encouraging".

National said: "While government spending will pick up (the coming federal budget to provide more detail), loose fiscal policy may not derail rate cuts. To us, the current policy setting has proven sufficiently restrictive."