June 24 (Reuters) - Index provider MSCI ( MSCI ) has extended a
review into transparency in Indonesia's equity market, staving
off - for now - a downgrade to frontier market status but
offering little longer-run relief for this year's
worst-performing major stock market.
The Jakarta Composite index was flat in early trade
in response, with loses of about 30% year-to-date after MSCI ( MSCI )
threatened a downgrade in January over opacity in ownership and
trade flow in the market and limited free float even in larger
cap stocks.
The market's MSCI ( MSCI ) classification is important because it
dictates billions of dollars in passive investment allocation.
Here are investor and analyst responses to the MSCI ( MSCI ) review:
NIRGUNAN TIRUCHELVAM, HEAD OF CONSUMER AND INTERNET AT
ALETHEIA CAPITAL, SINGAPORE:
"The tone of the MSCI ( MSCI ) statement suggests that the chances of
a downgrade to frontier classification remain relatively high."
"We were counting on a 50/50 chance of a downgrade that
continues to be our core expectation, but there needs to be a
concerted effort by the Indonesian authorities to address some
of the transparency and concentration risks that the MSCI ( MSCI ) has
flagged in this statement and in previous statements."
GARY TAN, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, ALLSPRING GLOBAL INVESTMENTS,
SINGAPORE:
"The outcome was in line with market expectations, with the
tone of MSCI's ( MSCI ) statement more cautionary than outright negative
in our view."
"What stood out is the clear shift toward implementation and
measurable outcomes, signalling that announced reforms alone are
not sufficient. The extension of the review to November keeps
pressure on regulators and effectively kicks the decision down
the road. In the interim, we expect investor focus to shift
toward currency stability and policy credibility, with the
trajectory of the rupiah a key barometer of progress as the
government works to restore confidence."
TAN ALTUNDAG, INVESTMENT MANAGER, EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES,
PICTET ASSET MANAGEMENT, HONG KONG:
"Retaining EM status preserves Indonesia's access to the
broadest institutional investor base and removes the immediate
forced-selling threat. It gives regulators the runway to deliver
on the reforms pledged to MSCI ( MSCI ) - though Indonesia remains under
active watch. Staying in the investable universe for a broader
investor audience is meaningful, but it does not automatically
restore confidence or reverse outflows."
"This is not a clear-cut recovery narrative, and the bar for
re-engagement remains high. Beyond the MSCI ( MSCI ) decision itself,
investors will focus on regulatory follow-through and policy
credibility as the most tangible proxies for improved governance
direction."