(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a
columnist for Reuters.)
By Mike Dolan
LONDON, April 14 (Reuters) - Hungary's rejection of
right-wing nationalist Viktor Orban after 16 years in power is a
clear shot in the arm for its domestic markets. It should also
lift EU assets more broadly, removing a persistent roadblock for
a bloc now forced to go it alone.
The outgoing prime minister's self-styled "illiberal
democracy" not only left the Hungarian economy in a precarious
state but clashed with basic EU democratic principles,
triggering a series of vetoes on EU-wide policy and some 18
billion euros ($21.12 billion) in frozen EU funds to Budapest.
What's more, Orban's public embrace of Moscow on issues from
Ukraine to energy and foreign policy complicated the EU's rapid
rearmament to counter the Russian military threat to its East
since the Ukraine invasion in 2022.
His ouster comes despite - and some say partly because of -
U.S. President Donald Trump's explicit endorsement, and only
underscores the electorate's decision to turn back toward the EU
centre precisely as Transatlantic ties are fraying and the bloc
must increasingly fend for itself on defence and trade.
Peter Magyar, whose upstart centre-right Tisza party has won
a supermajority giving him power to reverse Orban's
constitutional changes, will not solve Hungary's problems
overnight. Battles lie ahead with Brussels over budgets, frozen
funds and the speed of reforms, and relations with Ukraine will
need careful handling.
But the sense of relief around EU capitals - that the
multiple frustrations of the Orban period may be passing at
last - was clear on Monday.
With traders eyeing a possible Budapest move toward euro
membership, Hungary's forint surged to its best levels
against the single currency in four years, 10-year Hungarian
government borrowing costs fell by half a percentage
point to their lowest since 2024, and the stock market
gained almost 5%.
The latest twists of the Iran war and energy shock made
broader European market moves harder to read, but investors took
the vote as reinforcing Europe's continued outperformance.
"It's a great result for Europe," said Lauren van Biljon,
senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments. "It
sets Europe up for a far more cohesive stance - and that's
everything from NATO to kind of everyday European business but
then also to Ukraine."
'UNDERAPPRECIATED'
For Morgan Stanley, the domestic Hungarian market
implications are obvious - the unfreezing of EU funds alone,
which amount to some 8% of Hungary's annual gross domestic
product (GDP), could add 1-1.5 percentage points to Hungarian
growth.
But the read-across to broader European equities is what the
bank calls "underappreciated".
It pointed to two specific catalysts: greater EU policy
coordination, and the possible release of a 90 billion euro
joint loan to Ukraine - agreed in December but vetoed by Hungary
- both of which it sees as supportive for EU equity sentiment,
particularly in bank and defence stocks.
Morgan Stanley also sees the result supporting a continued
narrowing of the valuation gap between European and U.S.
equities. The euro zone discount to U.S. equivalents is at its
lowest in three years and roughly half its peak just before the
2024 U.S. election.
A full repricing will likely require de-escalation in Iran -
on which there is little clarity yet.
The deeper message of the election, though, may matter most
to an EU bloc increasingly anxious about changing political
winds - internal and global - threatening its founding
principles.
For Laszlo Bruszt - a Central European University professor
whose institution was itself driven from Budapest by Orban in
2019 - the result carries a particular resonance.
"Orban's fall does challenge the sense of inevitability that
had surrounded the global drift away from liberal democracy," he
wrote in Project Syndicate.
(The opinions expressed here are those of Mike Dolan, a
columnist for Reuters.)
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