MOSCOW, Dec 12 (Reuters) - The Russian rouble rebounded
against the U.S. dollar and China's yuan on Thursday after
falling by about 5% against the dollar in the previous session,
with analysts expecting more sharp moves in a volatile market.
By 1200 GMT, the rouble was up 2% at 103.50 against
the dollar, according to over-the-counter market data from
banks. The rouble had strengthened by 0.25% to 13.88 against the
yuan in trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange.
Analysts said foreign currency inflows remained limited in
the aftermath of U.S. financial sanctions imposed on Nov. 22,
which led to the rouble's sharp weakening at the end of last
month.
"Despite the improvement, the supply of foreign currency is
still limited by the foreign trade factor. Therefore, a
resumption of the downward trend in the rouble's exchange rate
is likely," BCS brokerage analysts said.
The U.S. sanctions hit Gazprombank, Russia's third largest
lender, which handles payments for energy trade with Europe,
disrupting foreign trade transactions and the supply of foreign
currency to the Russian market.
Energy transactions with Gazprombank will stop on Dec. 20,
but in an earlier separate license issued in October, the U.S.
Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) authorized
energy transactions with nine Russian banks, including
sanctioned Sberbank and VTB.
"If the issues with payments for exporters are not resolved
and imports do not decrease, the pressure on the rouble will
persist," said economist Evgeny Kogan, adding that even the new
interest rate hike by the central bank will not help the rouble.
Russia's state oil firm Rosneft's deal with Indian private
refiner Reliance to supply nearly 500,000 barrels per
day (bpd) worth $13 billion over 10 years, reported by Reuters,
also added to longer-term optimism about the rouble.
One-day rouble/dollar futures, which trade on the Moscow
Stock Exchange and are a guide for the over-the-counter exchange
rate, were down 0.6% at 103.05. The Russian central bank set an
official exchange rate at 103.27 to the dollar.