As the US and NATO forces withdraw from Afghanistan, Taliban is making rapid advances across the country. The fundamentalist Islamist militia has already seized several border posts from Afghan forces, including the crossings with Iran, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan.

Last month, videos of Taliban taking over the border post between Afghanistan and Pakistan in the Afghan town of Spin Boldak also went viral on social media.

With the Taliban offensive becoming intense by the day, political observers fear that the war can spread beyond the borders of Afghanistan.

Nader Nadery, a senior member of the Afghan Peace Negotiation Team, has said the likelihood of the war spreading to other nations cannot be ruled out. He told CNBC, “If the Taliban advances militarily, the region will be burned. This war will not be contained within the borders of Afghanistan.”

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Nadery added that the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan has emboldened the Taliban, ISIS/ISIL (Daesh), Al Qaeda, and other such fundamentalist groups. There is a growing fear that misled or brainwashed youths not just from Afghanistan but from all over the world may join these radical Islamic forces and cause a global migraine, he said.

Recently, Russian Federation’s representative at the United Nations Security Council meeting highlighted the dramatic surge in drug production and rising refugee populations — both of which are most likely to become global concerns.

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The nexus between the armed group and the drug mafia is also fast expanding and these activities are certain to increase the smuggling of narcotics in Iran, Pakistan, Central Asian countries, and even East Asia and Europe, reports suggest.

The chequered history

During its regime in Afghanistan in the 1990s, Taliban caused trouble to several nations. As a consequence, there were times when foreign powers either intervened in the affairs of Afghanistan or at least planned to do so to check atrocities and safeguard themselves.

For instance, the Iranian forces were about to enter Afghanistan when atrocities against Shias in several provinces were rising in the late 1990s. This was after Taliban militants, mostly Sunni fundamentalists, killed at least 2,000 Shias in Mazar-e-Sharif and Bamiyan in 1997 and 1998.

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Similarly, several central Asian countries came close to launching strikes against Taliban to protect ethnic minorities like Uzbeks, Tajiks, and others in Afghanistan from persecution.

Impact of Taliban's gains on India

Although the Taliban's spokesperson recently claimed that the group doesn't want to be part of the “rivalry” between India and Pakistan, it is not unknown that the group has received the support of the Pakistan government and army time and again. Even today, several mujahideen (who engage in ‘jihaad’) are sent from Pakistan to assist Taliban in its fight against the Afghanistan government.

Thus, it is a cause of concern for India as the Taliban may reciprocate the favour by sending militants to disrupt peace in the country at the behest of Pakistan.

India had its worst run-in with the Taliban when the group’s militants hijacked Indian Airlines Flight 814 (IC 814) — with 176 passengers on board — to secure the release of terrorists imprisoned in India. The hostage crisis that lasted for seven days ended only after India agreed to release three terrorists – Mushtaq Ahmed Zargar, Ahmed Omar Saeed Sheikh, and Masood Azhar.

Besides, India being a democratic and secular nation supports liberal values and equal gender rights — concepts lost on the Taliban. The militant group believes in the strict interpretation of Sharia, public executions, banning of television, music, and cinema, and preventing girls over 10 years from attending school.

Current scenario

Following US President Joe Biden's instructions, the US and NATO troops would have left Afghanistan by September 11. This has instilled a sense of victory among the Taliban. The group also received international legitimacy after the US-Taliban peace deal.

While the US is expressing concern over the recent gains by Taliban, President Biden has said that the war is for the Afghans to fight. He said, “Look, we spent over a trillion dollars over twenty years, we trained and equipped with modern equipment over 300,000 Afghan forces... Afghan leaders have to come together... They’ve got to fight for themselves, fight for their nation.”

On the other hand, Russia is backing Taliban as Kremlin sees the incumbent Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani as a US proxy. Further, senior leaders of the Taliban were recently received in China in a signal that Beijing is warming up to the militant group.

(Edited by : Kanishka Sarkar)