ORLANDO, Florida, July 23 (Reuters) - European and U.S.
stocks slumped while bond yields shot higher on Thursday, with
global markets rocked by oil's surge above $100 a barrel and
earnings reports from two U.S. "Big Tech" companies that showed
they are burning through cash at an alarming rate.
If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I
recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets
today.
1. Alphabet's cash burn raises alarm for Big Tech as AI
spending climbs
2. Trump vows to punish Iran for Houthi attacks in Red Sea;
oil surges over $100
3. ECB keeps rates unchanged but September hike stays in
play
4. Warsh's no-guidance approach confronts a hawkish world
and hawkish Fed colleagues
5. U.S. Treasury bill issuance grows, heightens long-term
risk
Today's Key Market Moves
* STOCKS: South Korea +4%, Japan +0.5%. Europe -1.3%, UK
-0.7%. S&P 500 -1.2%, Nasdaq -2.2%.
* SECTORS/SHARES: "Mag 7" shares, consumer discretionaries
-5%, biggest falls since April last year. Industrials +1.8%.
Tesla -15%, T-Mobile -11%, Alphabet -7%, Amazon -5%. Lockheed
Martin +10%, Intel +12% after the bell.
* FX: Dollar/yen shoots up towards 164.00, a new 40-year
high. Euro 3-week low after ECB, South African rand world's
worst performer, -3%, after central bank keeps rates on hold.
* BONDS: 2-year JGB yield hits 1.50%, highest since 1995.
2-year German yield highest in two years. U.S. yields hit
highest in 18 months, 30-year U.S. real yield highest since
2008. Ugly 10-year TIPS auction - highest yield since 2008.
* COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil leaps 6-7%, now +40% y/y. Brent
tops $100, WTI over $90. Gold -2%.
Today's Talking Points
* Running hot
Relief from the June U.S. CPI and PPI inflation reports last
week has surely evaporated. Oil is soaring again as war in the
Middle East flares up - Brent is over $100 a barrel and WTI is
above $90 - and the latest weekly jobless claims figures suggest
the U.S. economy is humming along just fine (for now). Initial
claims fell to 187,000 last week, the lowest since the summer of
1969.
Little wonder Treasuries are tanking. Two- and 10-year U.S.
yields are the highest in 18 months, and the 30-year yield is
close to a new post-2007 high. The 30-year "real yield" is the
highest since 2008, nudging 3%. Rates traders are now pricing in
60 bps of Fed hikes by April. Wall Street, especially Big Tech
and big borrowers, doesn't like it one bit. Main Street won't
either - gas is above $4/gallon and 30-year mortgage rates are
the highest in a year. Both are rising too.
* No-flow zone
Alphabet and Tesla results after the bell on Wednesday
confirmed what analysts had been warning - and investors had
been doing their best to ignore - for a while: they're burning
cash. Alphabet's free cash flow in Q1 turned negative for the
first time since the company floated more than 20 years ago, and
Tesla's FCF turned negative for the first time in two years.
Once prized for fat margins and cash gushers that could
easily fund new bets, Big Tech is now relying on debt and share
sales to bankroll AI spending, which is set to top $700 billion
this year as their cash flows fall short. Microsoft, Meta
Platforms and Amazon report results next week - buckle up.
* No changing of Lagarde
The world's second-biggest central bank kept interest rates on
hold on Thursday, but is on track to raise them at its next
meeting in September. That is how markets interpreted
post-decision comments from European Central Bank President
Christine Lagarde, who noted that a move today was discussed and
the full extent of the second oil shock underway has yet to be
felt.
That's certainly true. Not only is oil on a tear, European
natural gas prices have exploded 60% in the last month, and on
Thursday hit their highest level since just after the U.S.-Iran
war started. Rates traders are pricing in a 70% chance the ECB
hikes again in September, and are anticipating around 75 bps of
tightening in total over the next year or so. Can sluggish euro
zone growth withstand that?
What could move markets tomorrow?
* PMIs for Japan, euro zone, UK, U.S. (July)
* Japan CPI inflation (June)
* UK retail sales (June)
* European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane speaks
* U.S. earnings, including American Express, Verizon
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