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TRADING DAY-Seeking signals from the noise
Apr 6, 2026 2:35 PM

ORLANDO, Florida, April 6 (Reuters) - Wall Street and

the Asian stock markets that were open ticked higher on Easter

Monday, as investors shrugged off another rise in oil prices and

more belligerent rhetoric from U.S. President Donald Trump on

Iran, and awaited more concrete ceasefire news.

If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I

recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets

today.

1. Iran rejects ceasefire as Trump says entire country

can be 'taken out'

2. U.S. service sector cools in March; price paid

measure highest in 3-1/2 years

3. U.S. crude premiums climb to record levels as Asia,

Europe compete for supply

4. Goldman Sachs private credit fund defies redemption

surge across industry

5. BOJ warns of economic hit from Middle East conflict

Today's Key Market Moves

* STOCKS: South Korea up nearly 2%, India +1%, Japan's

Nikkei +0.5%. Europe closed. Main U.S. indices up 0.4% or 0.5%.

* SECTORS/SHARES: Eight of 11 S&P 500 sectors rise, led

by consumer discretionary and staples, and energy. Starbucks

+5%, Boeing +2%. Invesco, Super Micro Computer -5%.

* FX: Dollar dips. Biggest G10 gainers are AUD and GBP.

Biggest EM FX gainer is HUF ahead of April 12 election. Bitcoin

+4% back above $70,000.

* BONDS: U.S. Treasury yields drift 1-2 bps lower across

the curve. Investors eye 3-year auction Tuesday.

* COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil +1%, WTI posts highest close

since June 2022. Gold -1%.

Today's Talking Points

* Bellicose rhetoric loses punch

After his expletive-laden threats to Iran on Sunday, Trump

on Monday said every bridge and power plant in Iran will be

blown up by midnight on Tuesday unless a deal is agreed and the

Strait of Hormuz is reopened.

But markets didn't flinch - Wall Street rose, the dollar

slipped, and U.S. Treasury prices edged lower. Oil rose, but

only 1%. Markets are on edge. But they may also now be ignoring

Trump's bluster, much of which they have heard before, and

looking to trade on more concrete developments.

* U.S. sunny side up

The Iran war is in its sixth week, U.S. gasoline is above

$4/gallon, and WTI oil is 65% more expensive than it was a year

ago. Yet the initial March data suggest the U.S. economy is

weathering the storm (let's ignore price pressures for now).

Nonfarm payrolls smashed expectations, the manufacturing ISM

rose to its highest since 2022, and the U.S. economic surprises

index on Monday hit its highest in nearly four weeks. Some of

these surveys only cover the early part of March so the positive

surprises may not last. But the early signs are encouraging.

* Asia FX intervention risks

Some countries in Asia, like India and the Philippines, have

already intervened in the FX market since the Iran war started

to support their currencies. With the global price of oil

elevated, and the premium in Asia for physical loads and refined

products at record levels, they are unlikely to be the last.

Countries boasting current account deficits, like Indonesia,

are particularly vulnerable, but surplus countries also face the

threat of an energy/FX/inflation doom loop emerging. Indeed, in

worst case scenarios, some countries may need to consider

selling foreign bonds or gold to pay for fuel.

What could move markets tomorrow?

* Developments in the Middle East

* Energy market moves

* Australia, euro zone, UK services PMIs (March, final)

* Japan household spending (February)

* Canada PMI (March)

* U.S. durable goods (February)

* U.S. Treasury sells $58 billion of three-year notes at

auction

* U.S. Federal Reserve officials scheduled to speak include

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Vice Chair Philip

Jefferson, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly

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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not

reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust

Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom

from bias.

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