ORLANDO, Florida, March 26 (Reuters) - The price of

stocks, bonds and gold fell sharply on Thursday while oil

surged, as fading hopes for de-escalation in the Middle East

reignited inflation fears and left investors approaching the

quarter end in a deeply gloomy mood.

In my column today I look at why, despite war, $100 oil and deep

economic and policy uncertainty, the U.S. equity outlook may

still be bullish. Barclays strategists just raised their S&P 500

forecast, and they're not lone wolves on the Street either.

If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I

recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets

today.

1. Iran sees U.S. peace plan as "one-sided" as Trump

presses for deal

2. Iran oil shock sets U.S. Treasury seismograph

twitching: Mike Dolan

3. ECB's Nagel says April rate hike "an option"

4. Japan shifts focus to oil in unorthodox scramble to

talk up yen

5. Meta shares drop on fears U.S. verdicts open door to

deluge of lawsuits

Today's Key Market Moves

* STOCKS: Asia lower, biggest decliner is KOSPI -3.5%.

Europe's main indices -1% or more, Wall Street sees Dow -1%, and

S&P 500 -1.7%. Nasdaq -2.4% and enters correction territory from

October high.

* SECTORS/SHARES: Nine of 11 sectors in the S&P 500

fall, led by communications services -3.5%, tech -2.7%,

industrials -2.3%. Energy +1.6%. Meta -8%, Nvidia -4%,

Brown-Forman +9.5%, Valero +8%.

* FX: Dollar up 0.4%, USD/JPY is less than 20 pips from

160.00. THB and CLP among the biggest emerging FX decliners,

SEK, AUD the biggest G10 decliners. Bitcoin -4% back below

$70,000.

* BONDS: U.S. yields surge, post highest U.S. session

closes since mid-2025. Curve bear flattens further. Another poor

auction, this time 7-year.

* COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil jumps 5%. Gold -3%, silver

-5%.

Today's Talking Points

* The land of fake believe

One day, markets rally after U.S. President Donald Trump

says his administration has presented Iran with a peace plan and

the two sides are communicating, even though Tehran denies it

and says the plan is one-sided. The next day, markets tumble on

pretty much the same headlines and newsflow.

Who to believe, and when to believe them? It's difficult to

say, and there's no obvious rhyme or reason to how markets

respond. Investors could do a lot worse than simply buying after

a down day, and selling after an up day. If truth is the first

casualty of war, no wonder investors are floundering.

* Bond auction blues

Thursday's $44 billion auction of 7-year U.S. notes was pretty

terrible - weak demand, a big tail, and dealers left with a

sizeable slice of the offer. It was a similar story in

Wednesday's 5-year auction and Tuesday's 2-year sale.

Investors are clearly rattled by energy prices, war in the

Middle East, and inflation. With the total of foreign central

bank-owned Treasuries in custody at the Fed falling sharply too,

these are nervy times for Treasury. And markets in general.

* Technically speaking

If the U.S. economic "fundamentals" aren't looking that

great for stocks, the "technicals" are also starting to turn

sour. Wall Street's three main indices have all broken below the

200-day moving average, a chart level that often provides

long-term support or resistance, depending on the market's

direction.

Technical analysis has its critics, but when big levels like

200-DMAs are breached, more investors take notice. "Nothing good

ever happens below the 200-day moving average," investor Paul

Tudor Jones allegedly said. Market bottoms and the start of

rebounds happen, although it could be some time.

What could move markets tomorrow?

* Developments in the Middle East

* Energy market moves

* European Central Bank policymakers scheduled to speak

include board members Anneli Tuominen, Patrick Montagner, and

Isabel Schnabel

* UK retail sales (March)

* U.S. University of Michigan inflation expectations,

consumer sentiment (March, final)

* U.S. Federal Reserve officials scheduled to speak include

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, San Francisco Fed

President Mary Daly and Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson

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