ORLANDO, Florida, March 23 (Reuters) - Oil sank and U.S.

stocks rose on Monday on hopes that an end to the Middle East

war could be in sight after U.S. President Donald Trumpdelayed

military strikes on Iran's power plants and indicated that early

talks with Tehran have been held.

In my column today I look at why, for now at least, U.S.

consumers can cope with $100-a-barrel oil - household balance

sheets are in rude health and, perhaps surprisingly, gasoline

and energy products account for a mere 2% of total consumption.

If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I

recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets

today.

1. Iran denies talks with U.S. after Trump postpones

strikes on power grid

2. Trump's Iran war oil shield is cracking: Bousso

3. Trump approved Iran operation after Netanyahu argued

for joint killing of Khamenei, sources say

4. Fed's Miran still believes Fed should cut interest

rates - Bloomberg TV

5. BOJ's narrative shift signals dogged commitment to

rate hikes

Today's Key Market Moves

* STOCKS: Asia tumbles: Japan, China down >3%, South

Korea down >6%. But Europe rebounds ~1%; U.S. indexes have best

day since early February, up 1-2.5%. Brazil +3.5%, biggest rise

in three years.

* SECTORS/SHARES: All 11 sectors on the S&P 500 rise.

Consumer discretionaries +2.5%, tech +1.5%, even energy +1%.

Airlines, cruise ship operators outperform, Palantir +7%. Estee

Lauder -7%

* FX: Dollar index -0.7%, greenback slumps more than 1%

vs several emerging currencies like BRL, CLP, HUF. Biggest G10

mover is NOK, down ~2% as oil sinks.

* BONDS: U.S. yields fall 7 bps at short end, bull

steepening the curve. Today's rollercoaster epitomized by UK

gilts - 10-year yield hits highest since 2008 above 5%, then the

2-year yield has biggest decline in a year.

* COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil plunges 10%. Gold hits 4-month

low, ends down 2%; silver +2%.

Today's Talking Points

* TACO bell rings

Whether the U.S. postponing strikes on Iran's energy complex

marks the beginning of the end of the war or has a lasting

market impact remains to be seen. But Monday's sudden rebound in

risk appetite shows how much investors are hoping it proves to

be the latest "Trump Always Chickens Out" signal to buy.

The natural bias toward "TACO" trades is understandable,

although in this case, caution is still required. The damage

done to oil and LNG supply, facilities, and refining capacity

will take months to fully heal, and the world will be living

with high energy costs for even longer.

* Safe-haven, where art thou?

Gold's plunge since the Middle East conflict erupted nearly

a month ago has been remarkable, and raises an uncomfortable

question for investors: is there such a thing as a safe-haven

asset any more?

If gold can't shine amid war, a global oil shock, falling

stock markets and rising inflation, where can investors turn?

Perhaps gold has become just another speculative asset, and the

"one size fits all" concept of a safe haven is gone. In times of

crisis, investors now have to be more nimble, flexible, and

think outside the box.

* Sound and revision

As the global energy shock rolls into its fourth week,

revised growth and inflation forecasts are starting to trickle

in. The trajectories are no surprise, but the numbers do

highlight the tough position central bankers find themselves in.

"3% inflation is here to stay", say BNP Paribas economists,

raising their 2026 U.S. core and headline forecasts to 3.2% and

3.3%, respectively. Goldman's economists reckon high oil and gas

prices will add 1 percentage point to global headline inflation

over the next year, and subtract 0.4pp from global GDP growth.

What could move markets tomorrow?

* Developments in the Middle East

* Energy market moves

* Global PMIs, including from Japan, UK, euro zone, U.S.

(March, flash)

* Japan inflation (February)

* South Korea producer price inflation (February)

* Taiwan industrial production (February)

* ECB policymakers Pedro Machado, Olaf Sleijpen, Piero

Cipollone and Philip Lane speak at separate events

* U.S. productivity (Q4, revised)

* U.S. Treasury sells $69 billion of two-year notes at

auction

* U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr speaks

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