ORLANDO, Florida, Aug 7 (Reuters) - TRADING DAY

Making sense of the forces driving global markets

By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist

Tariffs and worries over the Federal Reserve's independence

battled against tech resilience in U.S. stock market trading on

Thursday, while the Bank of England's narrow call to cut rates

highlighted the dilemma facing many central banks right now.

More on that below. In my column today I explore whether

U.S. President Donald Trump's punitive tariffs on India and

Brazil could inadvertently push the BRICS nations closer

together and breathe new life into the bloc.

If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I

recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets

today.

1. Trump's tariffs spark defiance and concern

2. Trump may look like he's winning the trade war,

but

hurdles remain

3. Bank of England cuts rates to 4% after narrow 5-4

vote

4. We're looking at the wrong earnings season: Mike

Dolan

5. Trump to sign order opening way for alternative

assets

in 401(k)s, official says

Today's Key Market Moves

* FX: Sterling rises 0.6% back above $1.34 after BoE

delivers 'hawkish' rate cut.

* STOCKS: Japan's Topix hits a record high. Wall

Street

wobbles - the Dow slides 0.5%, the S&P 500 ends flat, the Nasdaq

gains 0.3%.

* SHARES/SECTORS: Eli Lilly shares -14%, biggest

fall in

25 years. Intel -3%. Apple shares +3%.

* BONDS: U.S. Treasury yields rise as much as 3 bps

at the

short end of the curve. 30-year auction was weak.

* COMMODITIES: Oil falls 0.7%. WTI futures down six

days

in a row, matching longest losing streak since December 2023.

Tariffs, Fed fears take their toll

A day packed with policy decisions, economic data, corporate

news, and twists in the global trade war and saga of Trump's

influence over the Federal Reserve ended with U.S. shares in the

red on Thursday.

Optimism around the U.S. tech and artificial intelligence

revolution abounds, and companies that are manufacturing in the

U.S. or have committed to do so will escape Trump's new 100%

tariffs on imported chips.

But the unpredictable and impulsive nature of Trump's tariff

policy, the ultra-high duties imposed on some key trading

partners, and the expected negative impact on growth and

inflation may finally be starting to weigh on investors' minds.

Trump's interference in independent economic institutions is

certainly worrying investors. These concerns intensified on

Thursday after Bloomberg News reported that Fed Governor

Christopher Waller is Trump's favored pick to replace chair

Jerome Powell.

Waller voted last month to cut interest rates, and would be

seen as sympathetic to Trump's desire to slash borrowing costs.

Maybe too sympathetic. Trump also said on Thursday that Council

of Economic Advisers Chairman Stephen Miran will fill a vacant

spot on the Fed board until January.

Earlier in the day, the Bank of England cut interest rates

to 4%. But the 5-4 vote was so tight, the BoE's rate-setting

committee held two votes for the first time since the BoE was

granted independence in 1997 in order to reach a decision.

Growth is slowing, inflationary pressures are rising. It's

central bankers' worst dilemma, one that many around the world

are facing right now.

In Asia on Thursday, data showed that Chinese exports and

imports in July were much stronger than expected as firms

front-loaded activity ahead of Trump's tariff deadline later

this month. Chinese stocks leaped nearly 2%, and the yuan rose

too.

Elsewhere in emerging markets on Thursday, Mexico's central

bank cut interest rates and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi

and Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva spoke by phone,

covering a broad range of topics including Trump's punitive

tariffs on both countries.

More on that below.

Could Trump tariffs become BRIC-building blocks?

U.S. President Donald Trump has the so-called 'BRIC' group

of nations directly in his trade war crosshairs, slapping

super-high tariffs on imports from Brazil and India, and

accusing them of pursuing "anti-American" policies.

Washington's relations with Brasilia and New Delhi have sunk

to new lows. But this belligerence could backfire.

The White House said on Wednesday that it will impose an

additional 25% tariff on goods from India, citing New Delhi's

continued imports of Russian oil. That brings the levy on most

goods to 50%, among the highest rate faced by any U.S. trading

partner.

Brazil also faces 50% tariffs on many of its U.S.-bound

exports, not because of trade imbalances, but because of Trump's

anger at what he calls a "witch hunt" against his ally, Brazil's

former President Jair Bolsonaro, who has been charged with

plotting a coup following his election loss in 2022.

This breakdown in relations could be Trump's intention: push

these countries to the brink so that they'll agree to trade

deals that are heavily lopsided in Washington's favor. That

strategy seemed to work with Japan and the European Union.

But hitting these 'BRICS' economies with eye-watering

tariffs could push them closer together, strengthening the

resolve of a group that appeared to be losing whatever momentum,

purpose and unity it had.

THE 50% CLUB

The original BRIC nations - Brazil, Russia, India and China

- held their first summit in 2009, eight years after former

Goldman Sachs economist Jim O'Neill coined the acronym for this

group of emerging economies he said would challenge the G7 group

of rich countries in the future.

South Africa became the 'S' in BRICS two years later, and

the club now comprises 11 countries including Indonesia, Iran

and Saudi Arabia, as well as a further nine 'partner' countries

including Malaysia, Nigeria, and Thailand.

It was always a disparate group - geographically,

economically, culturally, and politically - meaning its

cohesiveness has always been questionable. Its relations have

sometimes been rocky, particularly among its largest members.

That's why it was so notable when Indian Prime Minister

Narendra Modi on Wednesday announced that he will visit China

for the first time in over seven years. This could be a sign

that rising tensions with Washington are helping to thaw frosty

ties between New Delhi and Beijing.

Also on Wednesday, Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da

Silva told Reuters that he plans to call the leaders of India

and China to discuss a joint BRICS response to Trump's tariffs.

"I'm going to try to discuss with them about how each one is

doing in this situation ... so we can make a decision," Lula

said. "It's important to remember that the BRICS have ten

countries at the G20," he added, referring to the group that

gathers 20 of the world's biggest economies.

UNITED FRONT

While nothing unites like a common enemy, the differences

between the BRICS countries could limit how solid that front can

actually be.

Stephen Jen, CEO and co-CIO of Eurizon SLJ Asset Management

in London, posits that trade links between the five core BRICS

nations - never mind the historical, political and cultural ties

- are weak.

Only 14% of their trade is with each other. Russia and

Brazil may have higher levels of intra-BRICS trade, but only 9%

of China's exports are BRICS-bound, significantly less than the

19% that goes to emerging Asia and 15% destined for the U.S. And

in economic, political and military terms, China matters far

more than the others on the global stage.

"BRICS is more of an alliance on paper, not in reality," Jen

says.

But there are signs that intra-BRICS trade is strengthening.

China-Russia trade was a record $244.8 billion last year, and

China and India are the biggest two buyers of Russian oil. China

is Brazil's largest trading partner, accounting for 28% of

Brazil's exports and 24% of its imports. Roughly 70% of China's

soybean imports are from Brazil.

TENUOUS ALLIANCE

Trump's tariffs could push BRICS countries closer together

in the near term, in areas such as trade, investment, and

currency usage. They may feel it's in their economic interests

and, for some, in their political interests, to present a united

front.

How long that front can hold is anyone's guess. These

countries, particularly India, may resist moving further under

China's influence, and Russia's pariah status could limit

further integration beyond commodity imports.

In the meantime, however, Trump's tariff salvos are

BRICS-bound. How these emerging economies respond could be an

indication of whether we may truly be seeing a reshuffling of

global alliances.

What could move markets tomorrow?

* Bank of Japan summary of opinions from July 30-31 policy

meeting

* Japan household spending (June)

* Japan trade (June)

* Taiwan trade (July)

* China money supply, lending (July)

* Bank of England's Huw Pill speaks

* Canada employment (July)

* St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speaks

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