ORLANDO, Florida, March 24 (Reuters) - Wall Street

brought an otherwise positive day for global stocks to a

downbeat end on Tuesday, as rebounding oil prices, spiking bond

yields and soft business activity data compounded concerns that

the war in the Middle East is far from over.

In my column today I look at how the war, energy crisis, and

market turmoil have sent investors scurrying for safe havens.

The only trouble is, the one-size-fits-all safe haven asset no

longer exists.

If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I

recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets

today.

1. Iran war starts to hit global economy, business

surveys show

2. War-torn bonds may need recession to bounce back:

Mike Dolan

3. Japan's core inflation slows below BOJ target,

complicates rate communication

4. Ares caps withdrawals at private credit fund after

redemption requests surge

5. Traders bet $500 million on oil price just before

Trump's post on delay to Iran attack

Today's Key Market Moves

* STOCKS: Solid gains in Asia, major index gains nudge

3%; Europe +0.5%, UK +0.7%; the big three U.S. indices fall,

Mexico +2.2%

* SECTORS/SHARES: Seven S&P 500 sectors rise, energy

+2%, materials +1.7%; four fall, communications services -2.5%,

tech -0.7%. Estee Lauder -10%, Salesforce -6%, IBM -3%

* FX: Dollar +0.5%. Aussie, kiwi are biggest G10

decliners. In emerging FX ZAR, HUF, THB, INR all fall 1% or

more.

* BONDS: Treasury yields rise 10 bps at short end, bear

flattening the curve, after extremely weak 2-year auction.

* COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil +4.5%, gold -1%.

Today's Talking Points

* PMI pointers

Closely watched purchasing managers index data for March

released on Tuesday show that U.S. private sector output fell to

its lowest in 11 months, overall activity in the euro zone fell

to a 10-month low, and activity in Britain expanded at its

slowest pace in six months.

Unsurprisingly, war in the Middle East, a global energy

shock, and soaring oil and gas prices are putting global growth

under strain. The longer this goes on, the more activity is

squeezed, which could widen labor market cracks and spook

policymakers. Maybe rate hike pricing has swung too far?

* Private chancer

Another wave of worry about the health of private credit markets

is cresting. In the last 24 hours, Apollo's $25 billion private

credit fund Apollo Debt Solutions and Ares Management's $22.7

billion Ares Strategic Income Fund have said they are capping

redemptions at 5%.

Shares in both firms underperformed on Tuesday. Shares in

these and other big names in the sector are down 25-35% this

year, as concern over asset value deepens. Do cracks in private

credit pose structural risks to markets more broadly? The more

firms stop investors from accessing their money, the more that

debate will rage.

* A U.S. equity ... upgrade?

Barclays equity strategists put out an interesting note on

Tuesday. Despite the war, energy shock, AI disruption, and

private credit risks, they are raising their S&P 500 forecast

for this year: EPS to $321 from $305, and price target to 7650

from 7400. That implies ~15% upside from today's close.

They admit the risks skew toward more bear downside than

bull upside, but insist the U.S. offers stronger nominal growth

than other economies, led by a tech juggernaut that shows few

signs of stopping. "We are incrementally bullish on US equities,

though the road likely stays bumpy until we turn a corner."

What could move markets tomorrow?

* Developments in the Middle East

* Energy market moves

* Australia inflation (February)

* Germany Ifo business sentiment index (March)

* European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks

at "ECB and its Watchers" conference, with fellow policymakers

Olli Rehn, Philip Lane and Martin Kocher

* UK PPI and CPI inflation (February)

* U.S. import prices (February)

* U.S. EIA weekly crude oil stocks

* U.S. Treasury sells $70 billion of 5-year notes and $28

billion of 2-year floating rate notes at auction

* U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran speaks

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