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TREASURIES-Yields touch one-month low in skittish pre-jobs trade
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TREASURIES-Yields touch one-month low in skittish pre-jobs trade
Sep 6, 2024 6:12 AM

LONDON, Sept 6 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields fell for

a fourth straight day to one-month low on Friday in jittery

trading ahead of the upcoming monthly jobs report that could

determine the size of the Federal Reserve's first rate cut in

five years this month.

The benchmark 10-year note fell by as much as

2.5 basis points overnight to 3.708%, its lowest since Aug. 5.

In early European trading, it was down 2 bps at 3.712%.

The two-year note, which is more closely linked

to shifts in expectations for U.S. interest rates, was down 2.5

bps at 3.7268%, skimming its lowest since May 2023.

Economists polled by Reuters expect 160,000 workers to have

been added to nonfarm payrolls in August, following July's rise

of 114,000.

The July report, which undershot expectations, contributed

to the intense volatility in early August that battered stocks

and prompted an unwinding in long positions in the dollar

against the lower-yielding Japanese yen as investors

dramatically repriced their expectations for Fed monetary

policy.

Private-sector employment data on Thursday also painted a

picture of deterioration in the U.S. labour market, putting

markets on edge ahead of Friday's broader number.

Futures show traders expect 100 bps in rate cuts by December

this year, with a 70% chance of a half-point cut coming as early

as the Fed's next meeting on Sept. 18. Analysts said Friday's

jobs report could either confirm or upend those expectations.

In addition, New York Fed President John Williams and Fed

board governor Christopher Waller deliver remarks at separate

events later on Friday.

Investors are likely to look for further insight into

whether a quarter- or a half-point cut is more probable after

payrolls, Pepperstone strategist Chris Weston said.

"If the market is left with any ambiguity as to how the NFP

and unemployment rate read through to potential Fed policy

changes, consider that Fed governor Waller speaks shortly after

the data drops - so he'll give traders some initial steer as to

whether the NFP print pushes the Fed closer to a 25-bp or 50-bp

cut," he said.

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