LONDON, Sept 6 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields fell for
a fourth straight day to one-month low on Friday in jittery
trading ahead of the upcoming monthly jobs report that could
determine the size of the Federal Reserve's first rate cut in
five years this month.
The benchmark 10-year note fell by as much as
2.5 basis points overnight to 3.708%, its lowest since Aug. 5.
In early European trading, it was down 2 bps at 3.712%.
The two-year note, which is more closely linked
to shifts in expectations for U.S. interest rates, was down 2.5
bps at 3.7268%, skimming its lowest since May 2023.
Economists polled by Reuters expect 160,000 workers to have
been added to nonfarm payrolls in August, following July's rise
of 114,000.
The July report, which undershot expectations, contributed
to the intense volatility in early August that battered stocks
and prompted an unwinding in long positions in the dollar
against the lower-yielding Japanese yen as investors
dramatically repriced their expectations for Fed monetary
policy.
Private-sector employment data on Thursday also painted a
picture of deterioration in the U.S. labour market, putting
markets on edge ahead of Friday's broader number.
Futures show traders expect 100 bps in rate cuts by December
this year, with a 70% chance of a half-point cut coming as early
as the Fed's next meeting on Sept. 18. Analysts said Friday's
jobs report could either confirm or upend those expectations.
In addition, New York Fed President John Williams and Fed
board governor Christopher Waller deliver remarks at separate
events later on Friday.
Investors are likely to look for further insight into
whether a quarter- or a half-point cut is more probable after
payrolls, Pepperstone strategist Chris Weston said.
"If the market is left with any ambiguity as to how the NFP
and unemployment rate read through to potential Fed policy
changes, consider that Fed governor Waller speaks shortly after
the data drops - so he'll give traders some initial steer as to
whether the NFP print pushes the Fed closer to a 25-bp or 50-bp
cut," he said.