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US Equity Investors to Focus on Fed's Preferred Inflation Measure, Central Bank Speakers This Week to Validate 2024 Rate-Cut Forecast
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US Equity Investors to Focus on Fed's Preferred Inflation Measure, Central Bank Speakers This Week to Validate 2024 Rate-Cut Forecast
Mar 25, 2024 4:31 AM

07:01 AM EDT, 03/25/2024 (MT Newswires) -- US equity investors will watch out this week for any challenge from the Federal Reserve, or its preferred inflation measure due Friday, to the market's dovish interpretation of the central bank's latest rate-cut projections for this year.

* The personal consumption expenditures index will be the focal point for investors as hotter-than-expected consumer and producer price indexes released earlier in March failed to effect a cut in the number of interest-rate reductions forecast this year in the Federal Reserve's updated Summary of Economic Projections. If the PCE comes higher than forecast, it could pile pressure on policymakers.

* Fed speakers making public appearances this week include Chair Jerome Powell, who is scheduled to participate in a moderated discussion at the San Francisco Fed's policy conference Friday, the day on which the PCE data is released.

* "We'll have a chance to hear from three top Fed officials on the extent to which they're happy with markets that are pricing most of a quarter-point cut in two-and-a-half months at the June meeting while the dot plot signals only two more cuts over the remaining four meetings afterward," Derek Holt, head of capital markets economics at Scotiabank, said.

* Other macroeconomic data due this week includes the final reading on Q4 economic growth, durable goods orders, and the Conference Board consumer confidence.

* Investors will also look out for any change in leadership in equity markets. Last week, which included the impact of the Fed policy meeting and a relatively dovish lean, technology and communication services were the top three sectors. Micron Technology's ( MU ) quarterly results also underpinned the bullish AI outlook, another factor driving equity markets.

* But, over the past month, the top three sectors are energy, basic materials, and industrials, signaling a possible move into cyclical areas of the market.

* Earnings due this week include GameStop ( GME ) on Tuesday and BlackBerry (BB) on Wednesday.

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