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FOREX-Dollar skids to one-month low vs yen before pivotal payrolls
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FOREX-Dollar skids to one-month low vs yen before pivotal payrolls
Sep 6, 2024 1:26 PM

(Updates throughout with comment, prices at 0825 GMT)

By Kevin Buckland and Amanda Cooper

TOKYO/LONDON, Sept 6 (Reuters) - The dollar slid to a

one-month trough versus the yen and a one-week low on the euro

on Friday, as a mixed bag of U.S. job market indicators stirred

caution ahead of a crucial monthly payrolls report later in the

day.

A report on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing

new applications for jobless benefits declined last week as

layoffs remained low. That helped allay fears that the labour

market was deteriorating rapidly, after figures released the

previous day showed private jobs growth slumped to a 3-1/2-year

low in August.

Traders currently see 41% odds for a super-sized 50-basis

point (bp) Fed interest rate cut on Sept. 18, versus a 59%

probability of a quarter-point reduction, according to the CME

Group's FedWatch Tool. A day earlier, wagers on the larger cut

stood at 44%, but a week ago they were 30%.

The mixed data left traders guessing before Friday's

payrolls print, with economists surveyed by Reuters predicting

an increase of 160,000 jobs in August, up from a 114,000 rise in

July.

Traders have sold the dollar against other currencies fairly

consistently over the last couple of months, as concern has

risen that a slowing U.S. economy will require chunky rate cuts.

"If you look at where positioning is, people are probably

banking on too much of a dovish move from the Fed," IG chief

market strategist Chris Beauchamp said.

"Manufacturing ISM and ADP were all dire earlier in the

week and it's leading people to expect a negative (number),

which, if it doesn't come in as a shocker, as some people are

hoping for, some of those 50-bp bets could get dialled back and

people start buying back the dollar, which, conversely, might

weigh on other markets," he said.

What the Fed makes of the payrolls numbers will be almost

immediately obvious, with both Governor Christopher Waller and

New York Fed President John Williams separately taking to the

podium in the final Fedspeak before the blackout period begins

ahead of this month's policy gathering.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled the central bank's focus

was shifting from fighting inflation to preventing deterioration

in the jobs market when he strongly endorsed an imminent start

to the monetary easing cycle at the annual economic conference

in Jackson Hole last month.

"Recent labor data has fanned fears of labor market

softening (and) the August payroll report could be a 'make or

break' moment," TD Securities analysts including head of global

strategy Rich Kelly wrote in a report.

However, TD expects 205,000 jobs were added in August,

setting up a quarter-point cut this month, and triggering a

dollar rebound.

"There is simply lots of bad news priced into the USD,

increasing the risks that a string of good news will kick-start

a sizeable correction."

The dollar fell almost 1% against the yen at one point in

European trading, in line with a drop in U.S. Treasury yields.

It retraced some of that move to show a 0.5% decline on the day,

trading at 142.69 yen, its weakest since Aug. 5.

The euro held its ground at $1.11145, just below

Thursday's high of $1.11195, the most since Aug. 29, while

sterling was little changed at $1.3174, nudging at

one-week highs.

The dollar index, which gauges the currency against

the yen, euro, sterling and three other major peers, slipped

0.1% to 100.94, a one-week low. For the week, it has dropped

close to 0.8%.

The Swiss franc, which like the yen is a

traditional haven currency, strengthened about 0.28% to 0.8417

per dollar.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin surrendered overnight

gains and fell 0.6% to $55,745, heading for a weekly loss of

4.5%.

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