11:12 AM EDT, 07/07/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Alaska Air Group's ( ALK ) Q2 earnings per share are expected to be in line with company guidance as demand likely stabilized over the period, but the market's primary focus will be on Q3 and full year estimates, UBS Securities said in an earnings preview Monday.

The firm expects Q2 EPS of $1.56, compared with company guidance range of $1.15 to $1.65 and consensus of $1.53, while revenue per available seat mile is expected to decline due to deceleration in June following an increase in industry capacity. "[Alaska Air Group's ( ALK )] load factors were fine, but fares were likely lower [year over year]," UBS added.

The firm said Alaska Air ( ALK ) will guide Q3 toward flattish capacity, slightly positive revenue per available seat mile growth, assuming improvement as the quarter progresses, with July's trends currently broadly in line with June's sluggishness.

In Q4, Alaska Air ( ALK ) faces a challenging revenue comparison along with an uncertain demand backdrop and ongoing competitive capacity pressures that could impact top-line revenue, according to the note.

The firm has a neutral rating on Alaska Air's ( ALK ) stock with a $49 price target.

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