07:36 AM EDT, 10/25/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Canada is slated to release retail sales for August at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

Despite still-torrid for now) population growth, spending has been soft, falling 0.8% in the first seven months of the year. The bank is looking for a 0.5% month-over-month increase in August, in line with Statistics Canada's preliminary estimate.

Lower gasoline prices will weigh a bit, though broader prices were only slightly higher, suggesting volumes will stay positive for a third straight month, stated BMO.

The flash estimate for September retail sales and the flash for manufacturing sales -- a different release, but at the same time -- will give the bank a first look at economic activity in that month ahead of the August gross domestic product report -- plus the September flash estimate -- next week, it pointed out.

Separately, new home prices (NHPI) also at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday looks to be little changed in September, continuing to put little pressure on inflation, added the bank. Finally, BMO is expecting Canada's budget balance for August on Friday.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will likely get some questions about this when he speaks to journalists on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund meeting, at 2:30 p.m. ET Friday, according to BMO. The still-warm-from-the-presses Monetary Policy Report expected population growth to slow to 1.5% through the forecast horizon, and there's now clearly some downside risk there.

However, the BoC has also consistently said it views immigration as neutral for inflation over the long run, and Macklem will likely stick to the script on that front.

The Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) is a touch stronger at $1.385 early Friday, said the bank.