07:13 AM EDT, 05/27/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The TSX cruised to a new all-time high in trading on Monday, and it's up by 5% since the start of 2025, noted Bank of Montreal (BMO).

Suffice it to say that this runs against the common narrative surrounding the economic outlook, which is nothing short of dire among consumers and businesses, said the bank.

This gap has been well-noted for months now, but has become even more extreme in recent weeks with the "snappy" rebound in the TSX since early April, stated BMO.

A bigger question arises: Are the consumer confidence surveys a good predictor of economic activity, asked the bank. Confidence figures at least used to be very good

coincident indicators of real spending activity.

The COVID-19 pandemic unsettled things, pointed out BMO. But the burst of inflation in recent years threw things off kilter, with consumers rattled.

More recently, consumer sentiment has slid deeply, even as real spending was likely still up 3% year over year in Q1 and April retail sales held up just fine with a 0.5% month-over-month gain.

The bottom line is that while BMO can't ignore the

confidence numbers, they appear to be sending a much more negative signal than the reality on the ground.