11:54 AM EST, 03/07/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Constellation Brands' ( STZ ) beer business likely faced several pressures in the fiscal fourth quarter, prompting the company to lower its growth outlook for the division when it reports results next month, RBC Capital Markets said in a Friday note.

The beer division's depletion rate, or the pace at which units are sold to end consumers, face headwinds due to wildfires in Los Angeles, poor weather and uncertainty around the effect of tariffs, the brokerage said.

In addition, stricter immigration controls are weighing on Hispanic consumers, RBC analysts led by Nik Modi wrote. The beer and wine company's 36% of sales come from that demographic, which "is by far the most among our coverage universe," Modi said.

Constellation's beer category is also facing structural issues including the impact of weight-loss drugs and focus on health and wellness, according to the RBC note. The firm believes soft alcoholic beverage trends are expected to continue in the near term. This could prompt the company to lower its long-term revenue growth estimate for the beer category to between 4% and 6% from 7% to 9%.

The parent of Modelo and Corona has previously delivered on its long-term growth algorithm for the beer business, but the stock "has been not getting credit" for it, according to the brokerage. "Lowering the bar would be helpful, as investors have clearly been skeptical," it added.

In January, Constellation Brands ( STZ ) decreased its beer segment revenue growth target to 4% to 7% for fiscal 2025, citing soft consumer demand and macroeconomic challenges.

Constellation is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter results on April 9.

RBC said that the Trump administration's 25% tariff plan for imports from Mexico could add further complexity to the company's earnings in fiscal 2026. On a consolidated basis, it expects the beer and wine company's sales to grow 3% to 6% in the year.

Constellation Brands ( STZ ) is unlikely to "take outsized pricing to offset the tariff risk (as the company will likely look to protect volumes and market share)," according to the brokerage. "Ultimately, we believe the company will absorb a big chunk of the tariff impact (perhaps 50%) with the rest being offset by" productivity, revenue growth management and a weaker peso, Modi said.

RBC decreased the price target on the outperform-rated stock to $289 from $293.

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