DETROIT, April 17 (Reuters) - A Volkswagen

plant nestled against dense forests and Interstate 75 on the

southern border of Tennessee has become a battleground over

worker representation that could sway the future of the American

auto industry.

The United Auto Workers is attempting for the third time to

organize the 4,300 eligible workers in Chattanooga, where VW

assembles the ID.4 electric SUV. The vote at VW's only nonunion

plant globally is scheduled to begin on Wednesday and conclude

late on Friday.

The UAW, which has been shrinking, sees the VW vote as the first

of a series that would spread unions beyond Detroit-owned

automakers and into the U.S. South, which has been unfriendly

terrain for organized labor. A Mercedes-Benz factory

in Vance, Alabama, may hold a vote soon.

The environment has never been better for the UAW. Public

support for unions has soared in recent years and last autumn

U.S. President Joe Biden walked picket lines outside Detroit,

where the union secured record contracts with the Big Three

automakers: General Motors ( GM ), Ford Motor ( F ) and

Stellantis ( STLA ).

"This is the best chance they've ever had," Cornell

University labor professor Art Wheaton said of the UAW.

For decades, the union has struck out at southern auto plants.

In addition to two narrow losses at VW previously, it sustained

three more significant misses at southern factories owned by

Nissan ( NSANF ).

Pablo Di Si, head of Volkswagen's North American business, told

Reuters last month the company will remain neutral ahead of the

vote.

Union-backing workers at the VW plant hope this time to win,

and say they want better pay and benefits and improved plant

safety.

Kelcey Smith, who joined a union organizing committee after

being hired about a year ago, said the union's deals following a

six-week strike against the Detroit automakers inspired him. The

UAW won record contracts, including double-digit pay increases

and the return of cost-of-living adjustments.

Smith wants some of those perks himself.

"It showed not only me, but the rest of the country and the

world, that if you just come together as a collective group, you

can bring change for yourself and your families," he said.

Some employees at the plant say the risks of organizing

outweigh the potential rewards, worrying that increased labor

costs for VW could endanger job security.

Anti-UAW organizations have also made their voices heard, with

billboards near the Chattanooga plant urging passersby to visit

a Web page that spotlights a union bribery scandal that resulted

in federal convictions of several former UAW leaders. The

current UAW leadership was elected after that issue was resolved

with federal officials.

The opposition will test UAW President Shawn Fain as he embarks

on an ambitious organizing drive across the South and West. Fain

and his team have committed $40 million through 2026 to organize

more than a dozen nonunion shops owned by EV makers like Tesla

and foreign automakers including Toyota Motor ( TM ).

Fain has rejected descriptions of nonunion automakers as the

enemy, portraying those workers instead as future UAW members.

RIDING DETROIT WINS

Victor Vaughn, 55, who has been part of the volunteer

committee of VW employees who organized meetings at the local

UAW hall, said momentum built within their ranks after the

union's wins in Detroit.

"They work for different companies, but they're just like

you and me, and they're fighting for the same issues," he said.

The new contracts in Detroit - including a 25% wage increase

over four years - also caught the attention of Biden, who is

courting UAW members as key voters, especially in Michigan, in

this autumn's election. His opponent, former President Donald

Trump, has also held events in Michigan to woo auto workers.

"I want this type of contract for all autoworkers," Biden said

at a UAW event last November. He also supports the union's

broader organizing efforts.

Many nonunion automakers, including VW, offered raises after the

Big Three talks, which many analysts saw as a move to keep their

plants union-free.

Matching the UAW would be even costlier. Tesla would incur

$1.2 billion in additional labor costs this year if it were to

match UAW pay, according to Deutsche Bank.

Winning the VW vote is critical, however, because the UAW

continues to shrink, from a high of 1.5 million members in the

1970s to 370,000 last year, its lowest level since 2009. The

current organizing push targets 150,000 nonunion workers, which

would double the UAW's size.

The Volkswagen facility is the first of this group to gather

enough worker support to hold an election with the National

Labor Relations Board.

While UAW officials are confident about their chances in

Chattanooga, narrow losses in 2014 and 2019 still haunt them.

Volkswagen has been more open to a UAW election in this

round, said Georg Leutert, director of automotive at IndustriALL

Global Union, a Switzerland-based federation of unions. However,

some managers in the Tennessee plant have resisted unionization,

he said.

Officials with IG Metall, a German union representing VW

workers in that country, support the UAW.

Tennessee is a right-to-work state, meaning UAW membership

would not be mandatory for plant workers.

Tennessee Governor Bill Lee said earlier this month that VW

workers would "risk their futures" by voting to unionize.

Tennessee has a GM plant in Spring Hill that is unionized.

For VW workers in Tennessee like Darrell Belcher, a 13-year

veteran at the plant who previously opposed the union, the UAW

offers no guarantees. He cited the recent layoffs or buyouts of

factory workers at Stellantis ( STLA ) and GM.

Belcher asks co-workers excited to join the UAW: "What do

you actually expect to get, and what are you willing to lose?"