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Goldman Sachs says markets pricing in 70% probability of Ukrainian peace deal
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Goldman Sachs says markets pricing in 70% probability of Ukrainian peace deal
Apr 7, 2025 11:37 PM

MOSCOW (Reuters) - U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs ( GS ) said bond pricing inferred that markets believed there was 70% probability of a Ukraine peace deal, up sharply from before the November election of U.S. President Donald Trump.

"Our modeling suggests that current market pricing for a peace deal has risen from below 50% prior to US elections to around 70% at present," Goldman Sachs ( GS ) said in research note to clients.

It added, however, that this was slightly lower than a peak of 76% in February.

Trump, who says he wants to be remembered as a peacemaker, has repeatedly said he wants to end the "bloodbath" of the three-year conflict in Ukraine - which his administration casts as a proxy war between the United States and Russia.

President Vladimir Putin said last month that Russia supported a U.S. proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine in principle, but that fighting could not be paused until a number of crucial conditions were worked out or clarified.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said that Putin's conditions for a ceasefire are unrealistic and has accused the Russian leader of wanting to continue the war.

Russia currently controls a little under one fifth of Ukraine, including Crimea which Russia annexed in 2014, and most but not all of four other regions which Moscow now claims are part of Russia - a claim not recognised by most countries.

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