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Oil Prices Steady Even as OPEC+ Surprises With Outsized Production Hike in August
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Oil Prices Steady Even as OPEC+ Surprises With Outsized Production Hike in August
Jul 7, 2025 6:24 AM

08:55 AM EDT, 07/07/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Oil prices held steady early on Monday even after OPEC+ over the weekend surprised the market by deciding to further speed the return of voluntary production cuts with an even-larger tranche of supply additions in August as the group looks to regain market share from producers outside of the cartel.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil for August delivery was last seen down US$0.06 to US$66.94 per barrel, rising off an overnight low US$65.40. September Brent oil was up US$0.37 to US$68.67.

OPEC+ was widely expected to agree to approve a fourth-straight monthly supply increase of 411,000 barrels per day at its weekend meeting, as it speeds the return of 2.2-million bpd of voluntary production cuts to the markets. Instead, the cartel agreed to raise output by 548,000 bpd next month.

The eight countries that made the cuts in 2023 issued a press release saying the decision was made "In view of a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories, and in accordance with the decision agreed upon on 5 December 2024 to start a gradual and flexible return of the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary adjustments".

Following the decision to boost supply Saudi Arabia also said it will raise prices for its August exports, usually a signal of strong demand. However most forecasters are seeing global inventories on the rise. Some the production increases are being offset by OPEC+ members lowering output to compensate for over-producing their quotas, but supply is outpacing demand and likely to push prices lower as OPEC+ looks to seize market share lost to U.S. shale producers.

"OPEC+'s move to accelerate production appears to send a clear message to U.S. shale and other non-OPEC+ producers: the group is willing to tolerate lower prices in the short term to defend and grow its share of global output. While this may offer near-term relief for the White House in the form of softer fuel prices at the pumps, it poses challenges for U.S. producers already contending with rising costs," Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank wrote.

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