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OPEC+ scheduled to boost output by 138,000 bpd in April

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Uncertainty around sanctions, tariffs makes OPEC+ decision

harder, sources say

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Russia, UAE would like to proceed with increase, sources

say

By Alex Lawler, Olesya Astakhova and Ahmad Ghaddar

LONDON/MOSCOW, Feb 27 (Reuters) - OPEC+ is debating

whether to raise oil output in April as planned or freeze it as

its members struggle to read the global supply picture because

of fresh U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, Iran and Russia, eight

OPEC+ sources said.

OPEC+ usually confirms its supply policy one month in

advance to have time to allocate crude to buyers. Hence, the

group has until March 5-7 to finalise its April production but

no consensus has emerged so far, some of the sources said.

Inside OPEC+, the United Arab Emirates, keen to make use of

its rising output capacity, would like to proceed with the

increase, as would Russia, some of the sources said. Other

members including Saudi Arabia favour a delay, they said.

U.S. President Donald Trump has renewed pressure on OPEC to

bring down oil prices, which rallied above $82 a barrel

in January to multi-month highs after Trump's predecessor Joe

Biden slapped new sanctions on Russia.

Since then prices have fallen to $73 on hopes Trump would

help clinch a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine and boost

Russian oil flows. However, his plans to cut Iran's oil exports

to zero and his cancellation this week of a Chevron ( CVX ) licence to

operate in Venezuela have prevented prices from falling further.

The combination of those bullish and bearish factors have

made decision-making for April extremely complex, the eight

OPEC+ sources said. They added that Trump's plans for global

tariffs could reduce oil demand and complicate the outlook even

further.

All sources declined to be identified by name due to the

sensitivity of the matter.

OPEC and the Saudi government communications office did not

respond to requests for comment. The office of Russian Deputy

Prime Minister Alexander Novak and the UAE energy ministry did

not immediately respond to requests for comment.

OPEC+, which includes OPEC members plus Russia and other

allies, is cutting output by 5.85 million barrels per day (bpd),

equal to about 5.7% of global supply, agreed in a series of

steps since 2022 to support the market.

In December, OPEC+ extended its latest layer of cuts through

the first quarter of 2025, pushing back the plan to begin

raising output to April. The extension was the latest of several

delays.

Based on that plan, the gradual unwinding of 2.2 million bpd

of cuts - the most recent layer - and the start of an increase

for the UAE begins in April with a monthly rise of 138,000 bpd,

according to Reuters calculations.

Some analysts, such as Morgan Stanley, have said they expect

OPEC+ to prolong the cuts again.

Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets said OPEC+ could delay

the hike until the second half of 2025 due to sanctions and

tariffs uncertainty.