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Trade Setup for April 26: Nifty 50 faces resistance above 17,800 ahead of F&O expiry
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Trade Setup for April 26: Nifty 50 faces resistance above 17,800 ahead of F&O expiry
Apr 25, 2023 7:39 PM

After the surge on Monday, the Nifty 50 index had closed near a crucial resistance level. As a result, the narrow trading band returned on Tuesday, as the index traded only in a 90-point range through the day.

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The Nifty 50 index briefly crossed the 17,800 mark on Tuesday, but on expected lines, could not sustain at higher levels.

Majority of the drag came from the Nifty Bank index, which led the Nifty 50 higher on Monday. However, the index fell over 200 points off the day's highs on Tuesday and took the Nifty 50 lower along with it.

The Nifty 50 index has gained nearly 700 points in the April F&O series. If it manages to hold these gains until today and tomorrow, it will be the first F&O series in five, where the Nifty 50 will deliver positive returns.

For today's session, the market will react to earnings from Bajaj Auto and Tata Consumer Products. Four Nifty 50 companies - Bajaj Finance, HDFC Life, SBI Life, and Maruti Suzuki India, will be reporting results today.

"Our feel is that June quarter is the real quarter when things will further weaken out for them. June quarter will probably be the worst for IT names. It's better to stay away. And also the valuations haven't fallen in line, the valuations are 10-15 percent away from pre-COVID levels," Dinshaw Irani of Helios Capital spoke about IT stocks.

What do the charts suggest for Dalal Street?

Jai Bala of cashthechaos.com believes that the Nifty 50 is likely to make one final dash between 17,850 - 18,000 and make a very sharp reversal lower from there. He said that in case the Nifty 50 closes below levels of 17,550 on the downside, it will be an indication of the market topping out. 18,000 - 18,134 is seen as a key resistance band.

The derivatives data continues to be positive as FIIs have added long positions post the recent short covering, according to Ruchit Jain of 5paisa.com. Immediate support for the Nifty 50 is placed between 17,720 - 17,680.

With regards to the Nifty Bank, Bala said that a break below 41,700 on the downside, which is around 1,000 points from current levels, will mark the end of this "corrective rise." He highlighted 42,900 and 43,400 as key resistance levels.

Jain also said that the hourly chart of the Nifty Bank is showing a divergence as a new high is in place but the RSI has not confirmed the same. "Such divergences can lead to some correction or a consolidation and hence, once should keep a close watch on this development," he said, advising a buy-on-dips approach, as the positional structure is positive.

Here are key things to know about the market ahead of the trading session on April 26:

SGX Nifty

On Wednesday, Singapore Exchange (SGX) Nifty futures — an early indicator of the Nifty 50 index — declined 53 points or 0.33 percent to 17,733.5, thereby pointing to a negative opening for the market.

Global Markets

Benchmark indices ended lower on Tuesday after earnings from First Republic Bank and the subsequent stock reaction reignited fears about the broader banking sector.

The Dow Jones fell nearly 350 points, while the S&P 500 declined 1.6 percent. The tech-heavy Nasdaq underperformed, falling 2 percent.

Shares of First Republic Bank halved in a single session after deposits dropped 40 percent during the January-March quarter. It also announced laying off 20-25 percent of its workforce in the current quarter.

What to expect on Dalal Street

Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities continues to maintain that the market will remain dicey until it decisively crosses 17,865 on the upside. Unless that does not happen, he expects the market to shift into consolidation or also turn weak. Immediate downside support is seen between 17,650 - 17,600.

Echoing Shetti's sentiment, Rohan Patil of SAMCO Securities also believes that the index has to cross 17,850 on the upside to see further acceleration in upside momentum. "On the lower side, 17,600 and 17,550 will act as support zone for the index," he said.

A decisive move above 17,800 will take the Nifty 50 to 18,000, said Rupak De of LKP Securities. However, he highlighted 17,800 as a key resistance level for the index. But since the index is above key moving averages, the trend remains positive. Support on the lower end is intact at 17,700.

Key Levels To Track

For tomorrow's weekly and monthly options expiry, the 17,800 strike call of the Nifty 50 index has added 27 lakh shares in Open Interest, while the 17,900 call has added 9.7 lakh shares in Open Interest.

Shedding has been seen in the 17,700 call (26.38 lakh) and 17,600 call (18.24 lakh). The 17,800 put has added 23.18 lakh shares in Open Interest, while the 17,750 put has added 16.64 lakh shares.

Nifty 50's put-call ratio is now at 1.16 from 1.13 on Monday. Two days ahead of expiry, Zee Entertainment has entered the F&O ban.

FII/DII activity

Short Covering (Increase In Price and Decrease In Open Interest)

StockCurrent OICMPPrice ChangeOI Change
GMR Infra8,64,22,50044.800.11%-23.80%
Escorts Kubota7,91,1751,971.950.48%-23.38%
PNB14,16,16,00049.650.71%-20.84%
IDFC11,65,10,00083.600.06%-20.71%
Syngene10,68,000627.101.03%-20.48%

Long Unwinding (Decrease In Price and Open Interest)

StockCurrent OICMPPrice ChangeOI Change
Alkem Labs1,97,6003,417.40-0.36%-57.04%
Jubilant Foodworks53,17,500449.00-0.06%-55.30%
MRF10,08086,490.00-0.68%-55.14%
Bharat Forge24,61,000784.50-0.32%-51.37%
Intellect Design Arena17,45,000433.70-0.86%-50.16%

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