Earlier this week, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), one of the two Dravidian parties that took turn to govern Tamil Nadu during the past few decades, announced its decision to end to its ties with the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

Even though a formal parting of the ways between the long-time allies was in the works for a few months, it finally happened now proving BJP's failure to retain its allies, especially in yet another most politically-sensitive states of South India.

The September 25 decision came in the form of a formal resolution adopted by the AIADMK through which it conveyed candidly the unacceptability of attitude of the BJP leadership in the state, which for the past one year was running down its leader who built the AIADMK and its revered founders.

Also Read: It's official, AIADMK announces split from BJP and NDA

Over the past few months, while relations with the BJP Tamil Nadu leaders and its President K Annamalai remained strained, the decision of the AIADMK to come out of the NDA sent a different message in the home stretch towards general elections. Juxtapose this with the herculean effort of parties opposed to the NDA to build a coalition under the INDIA umbrella. The picture offers a study in contrast.

It is well established that since the rise of Dravidian parties, the Indian National Congress, which was in a position to form governments till the mid-1960s, has since found itself on the margins. It kept its political presence only with the support of one of the two, either the AIADMK or the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and remained relevant.

In the mid-1990s, the BJP too adopted a similar strategy of aligning with one of the two Dravidian parties and both the AIADMK and the DMK were part of the NDA with its nominees becoming Ministers at the Centre. Even during the 2014-2019 PM Narendra Modi 1.0 government, AIADMK party nominee M Thambi Durai was the Deputy Speaker of the Lok Sabha.

Equations began to alter after the death of party supremo J. Jayalalithaa in 2016. In the absence of a strong leadership, her successor in Chief Minister E. Palaniswamy gradually consolidated his position with the BJP/NDA extending support. Over the past few months, there is an increasing concern in the AIADMK that the BJP under the new state leadership is making a concerted effort to spread its political base. The impression gaining ground was that in the longer run, this could create problems for the regional party and lead to a crisis of its existence itself.

For the time being, the voices from within the central leadership indicate the issue could be sorted out as the Lok Sabha elections approach. Yet, the decision of AIADMK to breakaway leads to a perception that the BJP is unable to retain its old allies. The process began with the Shiromani Akali Dal; (Badal) the Uddhav Thackrey-faction of Shiv Sena, the Janata Dal and the others, even as the NDA demonstrated a show of strength, of 30 plus parties at the last allies meeting.

The dilemma before the BJP, a party working assiduously to emerge as a truly- pan-India party, is to strike a fine balance between its short-term goals and long-term objective in Tamil Nadu. The decision to hand over reins to a former police officer whose aggressive party work ruffled many feathers of its allies and eventually resulted in separation could be part of a strategy. The road ahead of the BJP is certainly long and littered with many challenges.

To begin with the BJP in the state, is viewed as a North Indian party and which goes against the politics of the state built on social justice, rational thinking and underpinned by anti-Hindi language stance. The dynamics of state politics and the regional party vis-à-vis the BJP stand different in ideological terms.

It was only through electoral adjustments that the BJP could get some political space in the state and now, in the post-Jayalalithaa phase, with the AIADMK struggling to establish its political domination there is space for jostling.

Ironically, the situation arises when the BJP and its allies lost position in the five South India states — the exit from governance in Karnataka earlier this year; no legislative presence in Kerala; struggling to retain commanding position as a formidable challenger in Telangana; and, at best among parties present in Andhra Pradesh - this scenario projects the BJP as a feeble party beyond the Vindhyas.

There are 120 Lok Sabha seats at stake (Andhra Pradesh – 25, Karnataka – 28, Kerala – 20, Tamil Nadu – 39, Telangana – 17 and Puducherry – 1). As things stand at present, the BJP tied up with the Janata Dal (Secular) in Karnataka, which keeps alive chances to retain its representative presence in the 18th Lok Sabha from what is characterised as its gateway to the South.

It is still is not a lost cause of the BJP in Tamil Nadu. The setback can be temporary since the AIADMK fire was essentially directed at the state leadership. A rapprochement cannot be ruled out. Politics, as the adage goes, is the art of the possible.

—The author, KV Prasad, is a senior journalist and has earlier worked with The Hindu and The Tribune. Views expressed are personal.

Read his previous articles here

(Edited by : C H Unnikrishnan)

First Published:Sept 28, 2023 10:23 AM IST