Mumbai is known to be a city which continues to thrive on throwing up surprises. True to its nature, on an otherwise placid Sunday, interrupted by battering Monsoon rains, the political landscape in the metropolis underwent a major change.

Former Deputy Chief Minister Ajit ‘Dada’ Pawar regained the post after joining the Shiv Sena (Shinde)-Bharatiya Janata Party alliance government. Ajit Pawar, besides claiming support of the majority of party legislators, declared the NCP (Nationalist Congress Party) under his leadership shook hands with the other two alliance partners.

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Since the development surfaced, several theories are floating around in the political space including whether the move of Ajit Pawar comes with a tacit support of his uncle and NCP founder Sharad Pawar. This innuendo of Sharad Pawar tilting towards the BJP is not new.

Four years ago, when Ajit Pawar was dramatically sworn-in as a Deputy to Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, similar thoughts were floated as it did some 24 years ago, when Sharad Pawar raised the foreign-origin issue of Sonia Gandhi in a meeting of the Congress Working Committee. He was hounded out of the party that summer and a few months later, Pawar set aside personal differences to strike a deal with the Congress to form a coalition government in Maharashtra which enjoyed a prolonged run.

Following Sunday’s development, the debate moved further with discussions revolving around its impact on Maharashtra politics and the sustainability of unity plans of parties opposed to the BJP under PM Narendra Modi.

Early indications from Sharad Pawar suggest the Maratha leader would embark on a path to challenge in on the political plane rather than quibble over it on legal and technical arguments as to who represents the NCP. Sharad Pawar's insistence to repose faith in the judgement of people, rekindle his strong connect with them is a strategy that allowed him to rebuild his political innings twice in the past, in the 1980s and then four years ago.

In 1980, Pawar was left with just a handful of legislators but he battled his way out. A similar strategy was four years ago, when Ajit Pawar rebelled. Pawar and his colleagues went about the state to explain its position, clawing back support that eventually resulted in the coalition government with Congress and Shiv Sena under Uddhav Thackrey. The Fadanavis-Ajit Pawar government just crumbled.

The Senior Pawar rolled out the political dice again interpreting that BJP’s move to induct NCP into the government absolved the party of the charge by PM Modi against the NCP and corruption. Alliance partner, Indian National Congress came up with its now-oft repeated charge of the ‘washing machine’ theory. It alluded that a number of NCP entrants into the ruling coalition were facing serious charges from law-enforcing agencies and can now have a breather.

The other theory is the wily Sharad Pawar sensed his nephew’s Ajit Pawar intention and did not entrust the work of party working president, which went to his daughter Supriya Sule and Praful Patel. Ajit Pawar, was retained as the Leader of the Opposition in the State Legislature, a role the latter was unwilling to perform.

Impact on Maharashtra and Opposition plans

While the onus will be on Ajit Pawar and his colleagues who altered the state politics to deliver both in the administration and in electoral politics, it will be interesting to watch the impact of the development on Maharashtra, which sends 48 MPs to Lok Sabha and also the grand Opposition Unity move that just unfolded.

The Shiv Sena (Shinde)-BJP-NCP coalition should have a comfortable run of the 15-month-term till elections due in October next year. Barring technical hurdles, the route appears clear for the ‘triple-engine’ state government to cruise ahead with the single-minded focus on winning maximum seats in the Lok Sabha and then retain the right to govern the state.

On the other hand, Sharad Pawar’s plans to painstakingly till the ground and make it fertile for him and his followers to reap an electoral harvest on the basis of policies and programmes.

The effort would be to expose the opportunistic moves by those who left his side and not necessarily playing up the martyrs’ card. Having placed innate faith in the discerning ability of the people twice before and emerging triumphant, the question is, can the octogenarian Sharad Pawar re-establish his hold on the masses?

As for erosion of authority within NCP casting a shadow on the unity plans, much will depend on the attitude of fellow travellers. Sharad Pawar is known to have personal contacts across political leadership and is one of the senior-most in the league.

The opposition, as a collective entity and one engaged in preparation to throw down the gauntlet to PM Modi will need a tall leader and strategist on its side. Besides, for his sheer seniority in national politics, Sharad Pawar commands respect whose voice is heard. The flip side for the Maratha leader would be that he may not be able to project his own case as the captain of the emerging national coalition of opposition parties. Yet, as the saying goes, tomorrow is another day.

—The author, KV Prasad, is a senior journalist and has earlier worked with The Hindu and The Tribune. Views expressed are personal.

Read his previous articles here

(Edited by : C H Unnikrishnan)