The results of Goa’s state assembly polls will be announced on March 10, along with the other four states. Goa’s legislative assembly has a total of 40 seats — 23 seats in North Goa and 17 in South Goa.

While the 2017 State Assembly elections saw the Indian National Congress (INC) emerge as the largest party with 17 seats, mass defections boosted the Bharatiya Janata Party’s numbers from 13 to 25, which formed the government under then Chief Minister Manohar Parrikar.

The state saw a voter turnout of 79.61 percent this time around, 2.95 down when compared to the previous election.

Here’s a look at the SWOT analysis of the major parties and alliances in Goa ahead of assembly election results on March 10:

National Democratic Alliance

The NDA is represented just by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the state. The party had pulled off a massive coup in 2017 with mass defections, and Manohar Parrikar formed a broad coalition of parties like Bharatiya Janata Party, Goa Forward Party and Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party.

Strength: The strength of the party lies in its workers, the karyakartas, that have solidified the base in the Northern part of the state.

Weaknesses: The addition of several former Congress MLAs have made the very same loyal workers become disillusioned with much of the party in the state.

Opportunities: BJP has always had the option of poaching MLAs, a time-honoured tradition in Goa, from other parties, especially the smaller players and Independents.

Threats: 10 years of BJP rule, along with the COVID-19 pandemic’s effect on tourism may make voters angry enough for a change.

Goa Assembly Election: Parties formulate post-result strategies; BJP, Congress woo MGP

United Progressive Alliance

The Indian National Congress is leading the alliance along with Goa Forward Party to make former Chief Minister Digambar Kamat retain power in the state. Congress was the single-largest party in the last election only to suffer from mass defections. The party has now asked all candidates to take an oath in their respective religion to not defect.

Strength: With only 11 lakh voters in Goa, voters vote based on the purest of ideals — which candidate will do what they want they need. Congress has a mix of candidates that are “known”.

Weaknesses: The party has been witnessing increasing defections as its voter share continues to erode. The Grand Old Party has been losing the confidence of the people of being a national power.

Opportunities: Goa Forward Party may cinch in some critical seats in Western Goa while the defection of Michael Lobo from BJP to Congress may also be key.

Threats: Voters who don’t see Congress as being strong enough to be an alternative to BJP may vote for other parties instead.

Ahead of Goa poll results, Congress to shift its candidates to hotel; state BJP leaders to meet Fadnavis in Mumbai

Aam Aadmi Party

The Aam Admi Party will be competing in the state for the second time, with a disappointing 6 percent voter share in 2017. This time, however, the party looks to recapture its success in Delhi in the southern state.

Strength: The party’s line has been to woo the anti-incumbency sentiments against BJP while also turning them against Congress by saying the latter is not strong enough.

Weaknesses: In Goa, where social connections are so important in elections AAP’s candidates are essentially “unknown”.

Opportunities: The party has also hedged its bet on voters wanting to see the same changes that brought the party to power in Delhi twice.

Threats: Previous performance indicates that AAP may not be established enough to pull the voters needed to win.

Talks on between Congress and non-BJP leaders in Goa: P Chidambaram

All India Trinamool Congress+

While the alliance runs on the name of All India Trinamool Congress as it contests 26 seats, its partner the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party is the real crowd puller.

Strength: MGP was Goa’s first ruling party and still has considerable holdouts. The AITC at the same time has been campaigning to become the foremost opposition to the BJP.

Weaknesses: AITC is an unknown quantity in the election, and may instead serve to sink MGP with it due to its “unknown” factor.

Opportunities: MGP is in the prime position to catch the “traditionalist” voter base while AITC has been positioning itself to ride the anti-incumbency and BJP-opposition vote.

Threats: With voting margins often just down to double digits, there is a possibility that AITC+ only manages to divide opposition votes further as none of the parties are competing against BJP’s base.

BJP in UP, AAP likely in Punjab: Political analysts decode exit poll readings

Nationalist Congress Party+

The Nationalist Congress Party has combined strengths with the Shiv Sena to compete for the state. Strong local support even in just a few constituencies may make the alliance a kingmaker in a possible hung assembly.

Strength: The two parties have performed well in Maharashtra and hope to entice voters with promises of the same result.

Weakness: The alliance is only contesting 29 seats and has decided to go ahead without the support of Congress in Goa.

Opportunities: Even securing 2-4 seats may make the alliance a kingmaker in the case of a hung assembly as the alliance has stated that it may cooperate with Congress ‘friends’.

Weakness: The two parties in the previous election secured less than 5 percent of the vote, they must try to remain relevant against so many competitors.

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First Published:Mar 9, 2022 5:14 PM IST