Power in Kerala has alternated between the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front and the Congress-led United Democratic Front. During every Assembly election, people in the State have traditionally voted out the party in power and brought in the alternative to govern them for the next five years. However, it appears that the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) is set to break that jinx and retain power when the State goes to the polls on April 6. The counting of votes will be taken up on May 2. The contest has always been between the LDF and the United Democratic Front (UDF), although this time the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance seriously fancies its chances of making a mark, even if does not come to power.

The local body elections in December 2020, in which the LDF swept to power across the State, were probably a precursor to what was in store in the Assembly elections. Buoyed by the success in the local body polls, the LDF Government decided to continue with the various measures it had already implemented and even announced a hike in the quantum of welfare pensions that it gives.

Various opinion surveys show the LDF well clear of the half-way mark in the 140-member house, with the UDF falling behind. The UDF can take solace from the fact that the NDA is projected to get not more than three seats despite the BJP throwing everything it has, including roping in octogenarian E. Sreedharan, the ‘Metroman’ as its candidate in Palakkad.

If it does indeed lose the election, it will be a huge setback for Congress, which has banked a lot on the southern State to shore up its fortunes. Rahul Gandhi, who won the 2019 Lok Sabha elections from Wayanad in Kerala, has been the party’s star campaigner. After winning a stunning 19 of the 20 seats in the Lok Sabha elections held in 2019, the Congress was on a high. That result should have logically boosted its fortunes and helped it romp home in the elections next month, a result that now appears unlikely.

If the LDF wins the election, it will be a huge personal victory for Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, who was pushed on the back foot after the Enforcement Directorate arrested his former principal secretary in the infamous gold smuggling case. The National Investigation Agency has now taken over the case.

For Vijayan and the LDF, the results of the local body elections held in December 2020 marked a huge turnaround in fortunes, after which the LDF decided to go full steam ahead with its welfare measures. The State budget for 2021-22 announced an increase in the quantum of welfare pension and a slew of other schemes addressing all sections of the population, including a floor price for rubber, a crucial industry in the State, and higher procurement prices for paddy and coconut. For its part, the UDF has announced a minimum support price for rubber, which is much higher than the prevailing market price.

Even before the local body elections, the LDF staged a coup of sorts when it brought on to its side the Kerala Congress (M), thanks to which the LDF has gained in the traditional UDF strongholds of Kottayam, Idukki and Pathanamthitta. It was Vijayan himself who was supposed to have masterminded this move, in spite of opposition from the CPI. This alliance is expected to help the LDF in the Assembly elections too.

One of the factors that have helped the LDF is the distribution of free food kits consisting of essential ingredients to all ration card holders from April 2020, soon after the country went into a lockdown because of the Coronavirus pandemic. This has helped nearly 88 lakh families in the State. The LDF has said it will continue with the distribution of the food kits.

While the Opposition has been attacking Chief Minister Vijayan and the LDF Government on the gold smuggling case and on various other corruption charges, the Chief Minister has preferred to highlight his government’s achievements, in particular the handling of two devastating floods, the Coronavirus pandemic, how it ensured that no family went hungry during the lockdown and its welfare and development measures.

The LDF was also expected to be in dock after the BJP and the Congress raked up the Government’s handling of the Sabarimala issue in September 2018 after the Supreme Court allowed entry of women of all ages into the temple. This is an emotive issue for Hindus in the State and recently the Kerala Devaswom Minister Kadakampally Surendran said the incidents of September 2018 should not have happened and the Government would implement the final order of the Supreme Court only after consultations with all concerned.

If after winning 19 of the 20 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress still finds itself on the back foot, it has no one to blame but itself. After the debacle in the local body polls, the party did what it always does after a poll defeat—various factions started blaming each other. It will be a huge personal embarrassment for Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, who could make it to the Lok Sabha in 2019 from Wayanad while he lost his traditional seat of Amethi in Uttar Pradesh. He has also spent considerable time campaigning in the State.

The UDF has had to depend on former Chief Minister Oommen Chandy to lead the campaign against the LDF and to boost the morale of its workers. The 77-year-old Chandy, who is still hugely popular among the public, takes every opportunity to highlight the corruption in the LDF Government and how it will be disastrous for the State if the LDF were to retain power. For its part, the Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee has promised to bring in a law that will protect the Sabarimala traditions. This is expected to blunt the BJP’s campaign on the issue and also ensure that devout and traditional Hindus do not move away from the party.

However, this move may have come a bit too late in the day to save the UDF from a defeat. The UDF got into an electoral alliance with the Welfare Party of India, which is floated by the Jamaat-e-Islami, for the local body polls, which is supposed to have cost it dear because the UDF’s traditional voters were upset with this arrangement and deserted the party.

The BJP is expected to benefit from this tie-up, although the UDF and the Welfare Party of India, severed their alliance earlier this year and are not contesting the Assembly elections together. The BJP will be hoping for consolidation of Hindu votes, which may happen, but not enough for it to make a mark in the Assembly. For all its tall talk, the NDA is not expected to win more than three seats. Roping in ‘Metroman’ E. Sreedharan, who has a stellar track record in the Railways and in implementing metro rail projects in the country and a reputation for personal integrity, and convincing him to contest the elections and projecting his image may just not be enough for the party to romp home.

However, the BJP is expected to increase its vote share this time too, something that it has been doing steadily over the last few elections. From a 6 percent share in the 2011 Assembly elections, the BJP increased its share to 10.53 percent in the 2016 polls, while opinion surveys put its share at around 16.5 percent in the forthcoming elections. In the 2019 Lok Sabha election too, the NDA increased its vote share, although it did not win a single seat. From 10.85 percent in the 2014 Parliament elections, the NDA’s share went up to 15.20 percent in the 2019 elections, of which the BJP accounted for 12.93 percent. Analysts reckon that the BJP-led NDA will only gain at the expense of Congress and the UDF.

If the LDF does manage to retain power, it will be seen as a referendum on Pinarayi Vijayan’s performance and will help strengthen his position within the front and the CPI(M). A second consecutive defeat will leave the faction-ridden Congress and the UDF in tatters. It will be a major cause for worry for the national party as it is banking on doing well in both the Kerala and Assam Assembly elections to boost its sagging fortunes. The Congress will have to get its act together in time for the next parliamentary elections, which are due in 2024. (EOM).

—N Ramakrishnan is a Chennai-based freelance journalist with over three decades of experience. The views expressed are personal

(Edited by : Ajay Vaishnav)