For the last 35 years, Uttar Pradesh — arguably the most significant state politically — has not allowed two consecutive terms in office to any political party. However, the recently-released exit polls suggest that the Yogi Adityanath-led BJP government in UP may buck the trend.

According to almost all the surveys, BJP is likely to sweep the state albeit with a reduced majority in comparison to 2017 when the saffron party secured 312 out of the total 403 assembly seats. This time, it contested the elections in an alliance with the Apna Dal and Nishad Party.

Nonetheless, the Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party, which has emerged as the primary challenger in the state, is far from losing the battle. The party, which contested in alliance with Rashtriya Lok Dal, certainly holds the potential to spring surprises on the day of counting.

Meanwhile, other parties in the fray — like Congress, Bahujan Samaj Party, Aam Aadmi Party — are unlikely to secure a mandate on their own and hope to assume the role of kingmaker in case of a hung assembly verdict.

Here’s a look at the SWOT analysis of the BJP-led alliance and Samajwadi Party-RLD alliance in Uttar Pradesh elections:

Bharatiya Janata Party-Apna Dal-Nishad Party

Strengths: For BJP, the biggest strength in Uttar Pradesh, without a doubt, is Prime Minister Narendra Modi's personal charisma. From rural corners to urban centres, Modi enjoys a die-hard following in the state.

After PM Modi, chief minister Yogi has emerged as the second-most popular mass leader in the BJP. Over the course of five years, Yogi has been able to project an image of a non-corrupt leader who doesn't make compromises to placate a leader or a group. While a section of the population slam the Yogi government for extra-judicial killings, a large number of people are impressed with the same. His comments like “Agar apraadh karenge toh thok diye jaayenge ” get a roaring cheer at rallies.

Also, Hindutva remains BJP's forte in the state. Kashi Vishwanath Dham Corridor, ongoing construction of Ram Mandir in Ayodhya, lighting of 1 lakh diyas (earthen lighting pots) on Diwali in Ayodhya, and frequent temple visits of senior BJP leadersm including PM Modi, works like a charm in the Hindi heartland. After detesting the "Hindutva" policy for years, even BJP's political rival seem to be coming to terms with it in UP. During the election campaign, Akhilesh Yadav visited temples, Priyanka Gandhi chanted hymns at rallies, and "Jai Shri Ram" slogans were raised in Mayawati rallies.

Being the original proponent of Hindutva politics, the BJP hopes to make significant gains in Uttar Pradesh assembly election.

Weaknesses: Unemployment, farmer unrest, and inflation — the issues which the BJP didn't address even its UP poll campaign — are likely to hurt the saffron party the most. Besides, mismanagement of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic also divorced the party from several of its loyal support base.

Incidents like minister's son running over farmers with his vehicle in Lakhimpur Kheri and the horrific gang rape and murder of a Dalit girl in Hathras also damaged the party's image. Separately, in the run-up to the polls, several party MLAs, including cabinet minister Swami Prasad Maurya, joined SP.

Opportunities: Uttar Pradesh holds the key to 80 Lok Sabha and 31 Rajya Sabha seats. A win in UP elections will help the party in 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Also, BJP reversing the three-decade-old trend that UP doesn't give a second chance will be a shot in the arm for the party. Not to forget, a poll win will help the party crush regional parties like BSP and SP.

Threats: Besides facing anti-incumbency, the BJP also doesn't have the support of farmers, especially in the western Uttar Pradesh this time. The three farm laws, which were later retracted, and the "delay" in payment to cane farmers worked against the party.

Caste-dynamics may also play a spoilsport for the BJP this time. In 2017, BJP secured the votes of Hindu Jats. This time, they seem to be inclined towards the SP-RLD alliance. Further, a split in Muslim votes due to the entry of Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM in the fray also seems unlikely.

Samajwadi Party-Rashtriya Lok Dal

Strengths: Samajwadi Party's biggest strength is its loyal OBC-Muslim vote bank. Then comes the political clout of the Yadav family, especially Mulayam Singh Yadav and his son Akhilesh Yadav. Party's CM candidate, Akhilesh, has a good grip over youth voters in several constituencies. Meanwhile, RLD has considerable influence over Jat votes in western UP.

Weaknesses: Defections from the SP and infighting within the party caught a lot of negative press during election campaigning. Also, SP's image of a "party only for Yadavs" doesn't help its chances. In addition, Akhilesh's last tenure is still remembed by many as a period when crime rate increased dramatically in the state.

Opportunities: All of BJP's "weaknesses" infused a new life into SP's poll campaign a year ago. Starting from the COVID deaths during the second wave to the massive resentment against the three farm laws, the SP skillfully used it all to kick down the BJP during campaigning.

Threats: CM Yogi has been attacking the party for being soft towards criminals. All throughout campaigning, BJP cautioned women against voting for the SP for the sake of their safety. In a state like Uttar Pradesh where crime against women is a big poll issue, the Akhilesh Yadav-led party would suffer a severe blow if women don't vote for it. Last but not the least, SP lacks the star power. In contrast, a battery of BJP's star campaigners, including PM Modi, Rajnath Singh, and Smriti Irani, among others, are MPs from the state itself.

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