Suddenly, there is a buzz around Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and its political fortune in Punjab. The reason is not far to seek. Emergence of this nascent party in Chandigarh caught the fancy of political pundits.

After all denizens of “City Beautiful” a sobriquet of the township created by French architect Le Corbusier come from different parts of northern India and made it their home. Here in the local body polls, AAP emerged as a clear winner pushing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to the second spot and the Congress, ending a distant third.

It would be simplistic to juxtapose these results and start recalculating poll predictions ahead of the state assembly that will be reconstituted by mid-March. Elections to local bodies have a direct bearing on issues that are limited in geographical terms of wards and performance of representatives who served the term. Then, those residing in Chandigarh are not enrolled as voters in Punjab and the demography of the city cannot compared to the spread across three distinct regions — Malwa, Doaba and Majha — of Punjab.

Yet, of five states Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh, which would vote early next year, the situation in Punjab offers a very interesting phenomenon.

Of these, Punjab is the only state where the Congress is in government. Just to emphasise the difference, barring this state in rest of four the BJP is governing and as Prime Minister Narendra Modi underscores, a double-engine regime is at work for the people.

For students of politics, Punjab offers a rare insight. Politics in the state for several decades revolved around two poles, the Indian National Congress and a regional outfit in the Shiromani Akali Dal.

The Congress remains a principal contender with the Akali Dal mounting a serious challenge to regain the seat of power along with its partner the Bahujan Samaj party, which found space when identity politics began acquiring contours.

Over the past few decades, it was either the Congress or the Akalis who were in office and the stream of politics meandered along predictable lines until the emergence of AAP in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections upset the electoral balance.

The AAP marked national presence with Punjab electing its full contingent of four MPs in the Lok Sabha and following it up by becoming the prime party in the opposition after the 2017 state assembly election. AAP did mess calculations at the last assembly and remains an option for the people of Punjab who are looking for a Doosra, a party other than the Congress and the Akalis.

The BJP, a junior partner to the Akalis for long, is now working on an electoral pact with newly minted Punjab Lok Congress, of Amarinder Singh, set up after being ejected from the Chief Minister’s chair. This formation added breakaway Shiromani Akali Dal (Sanyukt) founded by former Union Minister Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa.

Just when things appeared to be settling down, a new front of farmers associated with the prolonged and decisive struggle against three contentions laws decided to throw their hat in the ring through Sanyukt Samaj Morcha. This factor is bound to change the equations on the ground since farmers were sullen with the BJP over farm laws and a sizeable rural segment of them seen as traditional Akali supporters. Whose votes would they peel off?

The field is getting crowded and adding to poll flavour is the infighting in the Congress. If the party’s decision to appoint a scheduled caste leader Charanjit Singh Channi upset the caste calculation matrix like never before it also wounded the vaulting ambition of the Punjab Pradesh Congress chief Navjot Singh Sidhu.

Sidhu is insisting the party enter the poll fray with a clear face of its next Chief Minister, a move that can jeopardise Congress USP for now of having Channi in the saddle. The undeclared intention of former India cricketer whose proximity with the younger Gandhi leadership in the party is established, wants to be that face.

This dilemma is not limited to the Congress party alone. The AAP faces a similar predicament. Here the AAP Convenor Arvind Kejriwal is reluctant to identify a leader as its Chief Minister candidate in the face of pressure from its ranks and its lone MP Bhagwant Mann. A similar tactic of not projecting a possible CM dented its image the last time.

With Akalis the picture is clear. Its president Sukhbir Badal is the leader and the alliance announced a Deputy Chief Minister would be from the BSP, if the combination is voted to office.

The BJP, Punjab, Lok Congress and Dhindsa faction of Akalis of seat sharing indicates larger share for the national party under the presumption that Captain Amarinder Singh could be the Chief Minister.

In personality driven politics, projecting a Chief Minister provides a cutting edge to parties contesting for power while issues do dominate the discourse. Every election is interesting and with competition becoming more intense, it is always fascinating to scan the landscape.

Around election time, the voter remains the sole arbitrator in deciding the future of politicians of different hues. From the established parties to newcomers, who seek to test the waters in this Mahakhumb, Punjab election offers an equal platform for all those eager to take a plunge.

— KV Prasad is a senior journalist and has earlier worked with The Hindu and The Tribune. The views expressed are personal.

Read his other columns here

(Edited by : Ajay Vaishnav)