SINGAPORE, July 31 (Reuters) - The yen hovered near a
2-1/2-month high on Wednesday ahead of a key Bank of Japan (BOJ)
policy decision where the central bank is set to detail plans to
taper its huge bond buying and a rate hike is on the cards.
Wednesday looked set to be a busy day for markets, with
China's official purchasing managers' index (PMI) data and
Australian consumer price figures also due during the Asian
session.
That is followed by inflation readings in France and the
wider euro zone later in the day, alongside the Federal
Reserve's policy decision, which takes centre stage. Escalating
geopolitical tensions also cast a cloud over markets.
With plenty of risk events to mark the month-end, currency
moves were largely subdued in early Asia trade as investors were
hesitant to take on fresh positions.
Still, the yen eked out a slight gain to last
stand 0.06% higher at 152.65 per dollar, after having jumped
0.8% in the previous session in the wake of news reports that
said the BOJ is mulling raising short-term rates to around
0.25%.
The Japanese currency looked set to end the month with an
over 5% gain, helped by Tokyo's bouts of intervention and the
massive unwinding of short-yen carry trades in anticipation of
Wednesday's BOJ outcome.
"We believe that the BOJ likely will make significant
headway on its exit from unorthodox policy at the July meeting
by reducing bond purchases and hiking interest rates," said
Gregor Hirt, global CIO for multi asset at Allianz Global
Investors. "We anticipate that the BOJ will increase interest
rates to around 0.25% at the upper limit."
"A rate hike could help stabilize the yen's current levels,
whereas the absence of a rate hike may trigger renewed selling
pressure driven by carry trades."
The yen similarly made headway against other currencies,
with the euro falling 0.07% to 165.07 yen and the
Australian dollar slipping 0.12% to 99.80 yen.
BRACING FOR THE FED
The euro was last 0.02% higher at $1.0817 and was
eyeing a 0.95% gain for July, helped by an easing dollar.
Data on Tuesday showed the euro zone's economy grew slightly
more than expected in the three months to June, but the outlook
for the remainder of the year was not quite so rosy.
Separate data released the same day also revealed the German
economy unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter, while
domestic inflation rose this month.
Sterling eked out a 0.02% gain to last trade at
$1.2840, and was eyeing a monthly gain of 1.5%. The dollar index
was little changed at 104.46, and was on track to lose
1.3% for the month.
Traders were closely watching the Fed's policy decision
later on Wednesday - likely to be the next main catalyst for
broad currency moves after the BOJ - where expectations are for
policymakers to lay the groundwork for a September rate cut.
Markets are expecting a September start to the Fed's easing
cycle, with about 68 basis points worth of cuts priced in for
the rest of the year.
Expectations of imminent Fed cuts have halted the dollar's
advance, after decades-high U.S. rates bolstered the greenback's
appeal for the most part of the past two years.
"We expect (the Fed) to open the door to a first interest
rate cut in September. In our view, such a move today could send
the wrong signal to markets and could spook investors," said
Julien Lafargue, chief market strategist at Barclays Private
Bank.
"On the other hand, with markets already pricing in slightly
more than 25bp worth of cuts in September, the Fed may find it
hard to push back against these expectations."
Elsewhere, the Aussie rose 0.05% to $0.6542 ahead
of the country's inflation figures due later on Wednesday, and
was headed for a monthly loss of nearly 2%, its worst
performance since January.
The New Zealand dollar ticked up 0.03% to $0.5905,
though was similarly on track for a more than 3% drop in July.
Both Antipodean currencies have been weighed down in part by
falling commodity prices and China's bleak economic outlook,
given the two are often used as liquid proxies for the yuan.
Chinese leaders signalled on Tuesday that the stimulus
measures needed to reach this year's economic growth target will
be directed at consumers, deviating from their usual playbook of
pouring funds into infrastructure projects.