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GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks steady but nerves remain raw; Harris-Trump debate up next
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GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks steady but nerves remain raw; Harris-Trump debate up next
Sep 11, 2024 5:00 AM

(Updates throughout at 0855 GMT)

By Amanda Cooper

LONDON, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Global shares steadied on

Tuesday, struggling to draw momentum from a rally on Wall Street

as concerns about faltering economic growth dampened investor

sentiment, which also dented the oil price.

Data from China showed exports grew at their fastest since

March 2023 in August, suggesting manufacturers were rushing out

orders ahead of tariffs expected from a number of trade

partners, while imports missed forecasts amid weak domestic

demand.

That followed Monday's inflation figures that pointed to

still-fragile domestic demand as producer price deflation

worsened, keeping alive calls for further stimulus from Beijing

to shore up its economy.

This took a chunk out of Asian shares, as well as

commodities such as copper and crude.

Across the broader equity market, MSCI's All-World index

was flat, reflecting modest gains in Europe,

where the STOXX 600 was up 0.2% and as U.S. stock

futures traded either side of unchanged.

Investors are anticipating a series of rapid interest rate

cuts from the Federal Reserve in the coming months, after last

week's U.S. jobs report painted a picture of a labour market

that was slowing.

"Markets are now on hard-landing alert essentially and we've

seen a return to 'good news is good news'," Investec chief

economist Philip Shaw said.

Stocks had traded at record highs just two weeks ago, as

expectations built for the Fed to deliver some fresh stimulus to

the economy by cutting borrowing costs.

But with the all-important labour market slowing, activity

across the manufacturing sector in contraction and inflation

subsiding, the mood has shifted.

Futures show traders are banking on U.S. rates dropping by a

full percentage point by the end of the year, with a near-30%

chance of a half-point cut coming as early as next week,

according to CME's Fedwatch tool.

Wall Street had staged an impressive rebound in the previous

session, after all three major U.S. stock indexes surged more

than 1%, recovering from last week's selloff.

Later on Tuesday, Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican

Donald Trump will debate for the first time ahead of the

Presidential election on Nov. 5, with the two locked in a tight

race.

THE CASE FOR CUTS

Investors now turn their attention to Wednesday's U.S.

inflation report, which could provide more clarity on whether

the Federal Reserve would deliver an outsized 50-basis-point cut

when it meets next week.

"(Inflation) numbers have been pretty critical over past few

months, but it is arguably less this time around. Markets have

it firmly established in their minds that price pressures are

easing back. What matters more are the projected trends in U.S.

economy and the extent to which activity holds up or slows

down," Investec's Shaw said.

Expectations are for headline inflation in the United States

to have slowed to an annual rate of 2.6% in August, compared

with July's 2.9%.

"If the inflation number is any different, or significantly

different from expectations, then the number of rate cuts

(priced in) will be changed," Jun Bei Liu, a portfolio manager

at Tribeca Investment Partners, said.

"At the moment, I think the market is reasonably aggressive

in pricing quite a lot this side of the year, and so that

probably opens up for a bit more... volatility that we have seen

in the last couple of weeks."

Oil, which has lost nearly 20% in the last two

months alone, driven by concern about global energy demand, was

down another 0.5% at $71.50 a barrel.

Copper futures were down 0.1% at $9,090 a tonne,

while iron ore futures fell 0.7% to $91.15 a tonne,

after data showed a drop in Chinese imports.

In currencies, the U.S. dollar strengthened 0.24% against

the yen to trade at 143.53. The euro was

flat at $1.1037, while sterling edge up 0.1% to

$1.3082, after data showed UK wage growth cooled in the three

months to July, keeping the case for another Bank of England

rate cut.

(Additional reporting by Rae Wee in Singapore; Editing by

Lincoln Feast, Sam Holmes and Alex Richardson)

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