(Updates prices)

By Pratima Desai

LONDON, July 6 (Reuters) - Aluminium prices rose on Monday

as focus returned to forecasts of shortages created by

disruptions to supplies from the Middle East and dwindling

stocks.

Benchmark aluminium on the London Metal Exchange was up

0.8% at $3,115 a metric ton at 1603 GMT. It hit $3,040, the

lowest since February 19, as peace talks between the United

States and Iran fuelled optimism for a resumption of supplies

from the Middle East - housing 9% of global aluminium smelting

capacity.

But even if shipments through the Strait of Hormuz restart,

the market is still likely to see a deficit this year.

Analysts at Macquarie expect Middle East production to fall

to 4.44 million tons this year, down 35% from last year. They

expect to see the aluminium market deficit at 930,000 tons this

year.

Stocks of aluminium in LME-approved warehouses at 295,550

tons are down more than 40% since late January and at their

lowest since September 2022.

Cancelled warrants or metal earmarked for delivery at 16%

show another 48,950 tons are due to leave the LME system.

Elsewhere, the market is still waiting for the outcome of

the review into the possibility of tariffs on U.S. imports of

copper. Traders had expected a decision at the end of June.

"The June 30 deadline was actually for the Commerce

Secretary to provide an update to the President, rather than for

a Presidential decision, so we remain in wait and see mode,"

Macquarie said in a note.

Traders and producers expecting tariffs on imports have been

shipping metal to the United States since President Donald Trump

ordered a national security probe in February last year.

Copper stocks in warehouses registered with Comex at 668,691

short tons or 606,626 metric tons have climbed nearly 600% since

then.

Much of that stock has come from LME warehouses .

LME copper firmed 0.1% to $13,381 a ton, zinc

rose 1.1% to $3,580, lead slipped 0.6% to $1,880, tin

advanced 0.6% to $52,950, while nickel was

little changed at $16,435.

(Reporting by Pratima Desai; additional reporting by Solomon

Cefai; Editing by Joyjeet Das and Tomasz Jaowski)