(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a
columnist for Reuters.)
By Mike Dolan
Oct 22 - What matters in U.S. and global markets today
By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets
Gold's stellar climb this year has hit the buffers and
streaming giant Netflix ( NFLX ) disappointed Wall Street with its latest
earnings, stopping stock markets in their tracks as trade and
geopolitical jitters mounted again.
Despite being on course for the best year since 1979 and
with no ostensible trigger, gold prices turned tail on Tuesday
and plunged 5% - the biggest one-day drop in five years. The
recoil extended on Wednesday, bringing it close to breaking back
below $4,000 per ounce before steadying.
The size of the gold drop suggested that speculative fervor
has driven the latest run-up as much as safe-haven demand and a
firmer dollar - largely driven by the yen's fall on reports of
another big Japanese fiscal boost.
With the S&P500 stalling on Tuesday and futures flat ahead
of today's bell, Netflix ( NFLX ) fumbled overnight - dropping almost 6%
in out of hours trading after its third-quarter update missed
targets on a Brazilian tax dispute. Netflix ( NFLX ) had risen 39% this
year up to that release.
Tesla and IBM and a host of other big names are due out
later, with the overall U.S. earnings season so far marginally
ahead of expectations and tracking 9% annual profit growth.
With Friday's U.S. inflation report and Wednesday's 20-year
Treasury bond auction on the radar, the long-bond yield eked out
another 6-month low.
British government bonds were one of the big market movers
in Europe and 10-year gilt yields hit their lowest since April
after UK September inflation unexpectedly held steady at 3.8% -
encouraging bets on another Bank of England rate cut this year.
Sterling slipped back against the dollar and euro.
Barclays stock jumped 5% after it announced a surprise share
buyback and upgraded a key profitability target for the year.
Meantime, hopes for an end to the Washington shutdown this
week were knocked back somewhat- as was speculation of separate
meetings soon between President Donald Trump and both China's
leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin over the
U.S.-China trade standoff and Ukraine war, respectively.
In today's column, I take a look at Friday's U.S. inflation
report and how the U.S. has likely moved into an above-target
inflation regime - whatever you think about the tariff impact.
Today's Market Minute
* A planned summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and
Russian President Vladimir Putin was put on hold on Tuesday, as
Moscow's rejection of an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine cast a
cloud over attempts at negotiations.
* Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is preparing an
economic stimulus package that is likely to exceed last year's
$92 billion to help households tackle inflation, government
sources familiar with the plan said on Wednesday.
* British inflation and a key underlying measure of price growth
both unexpectedly held steady in September, official figures
showed on Wednesday, offering some relief to finance minister
Rachel Reeves ahead of her November budget.
* Global oil prices are signalling that the market is tipping
into a protracted period of oversupply, but the huge disparity
in forecasts for OPEC's production will likely limit the
selloff, argues ROI energy columnist Ron Bousso.
* Is the U.S. equity market near the peak scaled in the lead-up
to the dotcom bubble? Comparing current pricing with the late
1990s indicates that - far from reaching a summit - U.S.
equities may only be at "base camp", argues Stephen Jen, CEO of
Eurizon SLJ asset management, in his latest piece for ROI.
Chart of the day
Argentina's central bank sold $45.5 million from its reserves on
Tuesday to support the exchange rate, after the peso reached the
upper limit of the central bank's floating band despite U.S.
support and a $20 billion currency swap to guarantee payment of
the next public debt maturity. The intervention came as
uncertainty in the market ahead of Sunday's legislative
elections spurred a shift toward dollar assets.
Today's events to watch
* Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr speaks; European
Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, ECB Vice President
Luis de Guindos and ECB board member Claudia Buch all speak;
Bank of England's Deputy Governor for Prudential Regulation Sam
Woods speaks
* US corporate earnings: Tesla, IBM, Lam Research, Northern
Trust, CME, Moody's, Boston Scientific, Kinder Morgan, Thermo
Fisher Scientific, Teledyne, Amphenol, Molina Healthcare,
Westinghouse, AT&T, Packaging Corp of America, Hilton Worldwide,
Globe Life, GE Vernova, United Rentals, Avery Dennison, First
Energy, Las Vegas Sands, Raymond James, Crown Castle, Lennox,
O'Reilly Automotive,
* US Treasury sells $13 billion of 20-year bonds
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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect
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