A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike
Dolan
Wall Street's most bizarre reaction to the relatively benign
U.S. employment report on Friday was a late selloff in stellar
Nvidia ( NVDA ) - the artificial intelligence poster child that's almost
doubled in price again this year.
Although many dismissed Nvidia's ( NVDA ) late 5% recoil as
merely overdue profit taking on its latest near-90% surge so far
this year, the stock fell another 1.5% overnight before
recovering that ahead of Monday's bell. And the move stopped
Nvidia ( NVDA ) overtaking Apple as the second most valuable company.
And there's an inevitable search for some smoking gun.
Chipmakers Broadcom and Marvell Technology ( MRVL )
also fell on Friday after their quarterly reports failed to
impress investors.
Hardly a game changer in itself, but Nvidia ( NVDA ) has been sued by
three authors who said it used their copyrighted books without
permission to train its NeMo AI platform.
And in another tech sideswipe on Monday, the European
Union's privacy watchdog said the European Commission's use of
Microsoft ( MSFT ) software breached EU privacy rules and the
bloc's executive also failed to implement adequate safeguards
for personal data transferred to non-EU countries.
Either way, the pullback does come after a wobbly week for
the leading "Magnificent Seven" of megacaps - perhaps indicating
some feeling that they'd all come a little too far too fast.
After hitting record highs earlier in the session, the S&P500
ended down 0.6% on Friday and futures were in the red
again early Monday.
The hiccup was hardly a reflection of the February
employment report - which was another statement on the rude
health of the U.S. economy. New payrolls beat forecasts last
month, but the overall labor market cooled with a rise in the
jobless rate and ebbing of wage growth.
That nailed in June for a first interest rate cut from the
Federal Reserve and saw full-year easing expectations climb to
95 basis points and two-year Treasury yields drop to
the lowest in a month.
And that all sets up Tuesday's consumer price report for
February as the next key moment in the Fed's assessment of the
disinflation path. Headline annual CPI inflation is expected to
remain steady at 3.1% - with the "core" rate ebbing to 3.7% from
3.9% the prior month.
By contrast overseas, China's jarring bout of deflation
appears to have eased somewhat as weekend data showed annual CPI
inflation there for the first time in six months - exceeding
forecasts with a 0.7% advance. And yet downward price pressures
persisted with a deeper 2.7% annual slump in producer prices.
How much the Lunar New Year holiday affected the readouts
remains to be seen, but China's stock benchmarks
advanced 1.2% on Monday nonetheless amid some relief.
China has also asked banks to enhance financing support for
state-backed China Vanke and called on creditors to consider
private debt maturity extension, in a rare intervention from
central government to help an embattled property firm.
In Japan, speculation about a Bank of Japan policy
tightening as soon as this month has intensified over the past
week and fourth-quarter GDP revisions on Monday saw initial
indications of late 2023 recession magiced away.
Although below the latest forecasts, Japan's revised gross
domestic product expanded at an annualised clip of 0.4% in the
October-December period, better than the initial estimate for a
0.4% contraction.
But with the yen pushing one-month highs again on
Monday amid the BOJ concerns, Japan's Nikkei skidded 2%
lower - with chip-equipment maker Tokyo Electron ( TOELF ) losing
3% and chip-testing equipment maker Advantest ( ADTTF ) off
almost 5%.
Elsewhere, the dollar was a touch lower.
But bitcoin hit another record high above $71,000, as
the surge in the token showed no signs of slowing down.
Britain's financial watchdog on Monday became the latest
regulator to pave the way for digital asset trading products
after saying on Monday it will now permit recognised investment
exchanges to launch crypto-backed exchange-traded notes.
Key diary items that may provide direction to U.S. markets later
on Monday:
* New York Fed inflation expectations survey, US Feb employment
trends
* Eurogroup finance ministers meet in Brussels
* U.S. Treasury auctions $56 billion of 3-year notes, and sells
3- and 6-month bills
* U.S. corp earnings: Oracle
(By Mike Dolan, editing by Nick Macfie