Oct 9 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European

and global markets from Wayne Cole.

Thursday's new headlines have been dominated by a ceasefire

agreement between Israel and Hamas that is touted as a first

step to ending the two-year conflict and the ultimate rebuilding

of war-torn Gaza. Much could still go wrong, but the easing of

geopolitical risk was enough to see oil prices slip 0.6% or so.

In equity markets, the AI effect was still dominant as tech

shares lifted the Nikkei back to near record peaks,

while Taiwan climbed 1.2% to an all-time high.

Chinese blue chips returned from holidays with

gains of 1.7%, reaching levels last seen in early 2022. Analysts

cautioned early reads on holiday spending were "underwhelming",

though the data is very patchy.

Beijing continued playing hard ball with rare earth

minerals, tightening export controls on processing technology,

while barring unauthorised overseas cooperation and underlining

its intention to limit exports to overseas defence and

semiconductor users.

The minerals have been a flash point in trade talks with the

United States and the new restrictions might not be taken well

by the White House.

Futures for S&P 500 and Nasdaq were steady after hitting

more record highs overnight, led by chip stocks. Analysts at

JPMorgan noted estimates for the looming Q3 reporting season see

earnings growth in the tech sector of 20.9%, up from 15.9% back

in June.

Some 81% of stocks in the tech sector have seen estimates

increase, led by Nvidia ( NVDA ) and Apple ( AAPL ). Earnings

overall are expected to grow 8%, with revenue up 6.3%.

Currencies have been calmer as the U.S. dollar digests a

chunky 3.6% gain on the yen so far this week. It's holding

around 152.50, having briefly tested 153.00 overnight.

It's fast approaching levels that usually draw howls of

complaints from the finance ministry, though it was notable that

an economist advising the policy circle of Japan's likely new

premier had touted the benefits of a weaker currency.

The euro was parked at $1.1650, having just

survived a test of $1.1600 support after some dire industrial

data from Germany. Markets are now waiting to see if French

President Macron can name a prime minister who will last more

than a few days in the search for a budget deal.

Markets will again keenly feel the loss of U.S. economic

data, in the knowledge the longer the government shutdown lasts

the more likely future releases will get pushed back too.

Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:

* German trade data for August

* Minutes of the last ECB meeting. Appearances include ECB

President Lagarde, board members Cipollone and Lane, Bank of

Spain governor Escriva

* Fed appearances include Barr, Musalem, Bowman, Kashkari

and some

pre-recorded welcome remarks by chair Powell to a banking

conference