04:41 PM EDT, 08/21/2025 (MT Newswires) -- According to RBC Capital Markets on Thursday, USD/CAD trading above the 1.3800 area "provides opportunities to sell into position for a long-term decline". RBC noted the focus next week is Canadian GDP (both headline and underlying details), with Tuesday's CPI "not providing a green light for BoC cuts". Base case remains that the BoC has finished its cutting cycle, the bank said.

On key things to watch, RBC noted Canada GDP figures, coming on Aug. 29, will be particularly important for assessing whether the BoC will remain on hold, saying if quarterly GDP comes in around RBC's forecast of flat (vs BoC -1.5%) the bar to cutting will remain high. Monthly GDP for June and the July nowcast should provide further confirmation that April/May weakness was transitory, it added.

RBC also noted SEPH payroll data, due Aug 28, is "severely lagged" compared to the LFS data, but it said "rapidly shrinking population growth has increased focus on the establishment survey".