12:16 PM EDT, 04/01/2024 (MT Newswires) -- After the long holiday weekend, markets were hit was a double shot that pulled back the odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June, long the benchmark timing for when many felt the Fed could begin to act.

The CME FedWatch Tool currently sees 57.4% chance of a rate cut at the June 11-12 meeting, down from 60.4% on Thursday and 70.1% a week ago.

First, markets looked back at comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday, when markets were closed, that indicated that Federal Open Market Committee still wants to see more evidence that inflation is truly on a downward path.

"We will be careful about this decision because we can be," Powell said, saying that the US economy is a good place that allows for patience. He conceded that the softer PCE price readings for February released on Friday were a good step in the right direction, but more data are needed.

Powell also said that he does not see the federal funds rate returning to its pre-COVID lows.

Then Monday morning, the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing reading rose above its breakeven point that indicates expansion for the first time since September 2022, with rebounds in the production and new orders categories.

There are currently 13 Fed appearances scheduled for this week, including a speech from Powell at 12:10 pm ET Wednesday, and Friday's March employment report that could shift the outlook further.