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TSX Down 82 Points in Broad Decline at Midday, Commodities Higher
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TSX Down 82 Points in Broad Decline at Midday, Commodities Higher
Feb 7, 2025 9:21 AM

12:12 PM EST, 02/07/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange is down 82 points at midday with most sectors in the red. Energy (+1%) and miners (+0.6%) are the sole gainers.

The biggest decliners are healthcare (-2.5%) and technology (-1.3%). Canopy Growth (WEED.TO) is down 23% after it reported third-quarter results that missed expectations.

Oil prices early on Friday rebounded from three days of losses as the Trump Administration tightened sanctions on exports from Iran.

Gold rose early on Friday, supported by safe-haven buying even as the dollar rose after the United States added fewer new jobs than expected in January.

Natural gas futures were steady at a week high early on Friday as cold weather boosts heating demand for the fuel.

In terms of economic news, TD Economics noted the Canadian labour market's "solid" job gains carried over into 2025, with 76k new jobs beating expectations. Job gains were split between full (+42.3k) and part-time (+38.6k) positions. TD also noted that given the threat of tariffs, Statistics Canada included a feature on manufacturing employment, which accounts for 8.9% of total employment in Canada. Specifically, 39.4% of manufacturing jobs depend on U.S. demand for Canadian exports, or roughly 641k jobs.

Three consecutive months of "solid" job growth suggests the cyclical boost to Canada's economy from lower interest rates is clearly taking effect, TD said. "Unfortunately, the imminent threat of tariffs hanging over the Canadian economy, is likely to temper business confidence and could weigh on hiring in some sectors in the coming months," it added.

The Bank of Canada continued to lower interest rates in January, such that interest rates are no longer a drag on the economy. Now it is over to Canadian governments to do what they can to improve the competitiveness of the economy in the face of the tariff threat, TD said.

Overall, CIBC said, it was "clearly a very positive report once again". However, it added, even after the improvement seen during the past two months, the unemployment rate is still only just back to where it stood in October, and is still consistent with a labour market with plenty of slack. "We continue to think that even lower interest rates will be needed for the economy to fully absorb that slack, particularly given heightened trade uncertainty which could impact hiring decisions ahead."

Meanwhile, in terms of the U.S., CIBC noted job gains were "a little soft" in January, but the bank said "a big picture view on the US labor market suggests it remains on very solid footing". Payrolls came in at 143K in January, below expectations of the 175K expected by consensus, but CIBC noted that also comes on the heels of a "scorching" 307K gain in December. "Today's report supports the Fed's pause -- the job market was a bit weaker over the past year than the Fed previously understood but the recent momentum looks solid. The FOMC's focus will remain on inflation and the net effect of fiscal, immigration and trade policies on the economy."

According to TD, there was a lot to digest in the US jobs report. But, it said, perhaps the biggest takeaway was that hiring momentum was even stronger than previously expected at the end of last year -- averaging 204k jobs per-month in the fourth quarter. And, the bank added, even though the January figures showed some deceleration in payrolls, it was likely due to wildfires in California and cold weather across much of the U.S. -- suggesting there could be some bounce-back in February.

TD said: "While it was previously thought that that labor market had fallen into a sweet spot, this morning's release suggests things are still running a bit hotter than previously expected. The unemployment rate dipped to an eight-month low, while wage growth has shown more staying power. With inflation progress having stalled in recent months and heightened uncertainties on how far the new administration will go on tariffs, the Fed is likely to remain more cautious on rate cuts and hold the policy rate steady until sometime this summer."

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